The Miami Dolphins entered the season as one of the teams under the highest level of scrutiny. Head coach Mike McDaniel entered the season on the hot seat, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s four-year, $212.4-million contract extension last summer has aged poorly as Tagovailoa battles injury and decision-making concerns.
The road won’t get any easier for either quarterback or head coach as Miami travels to Orchard Park to face the 2-0 Buffalo Bills for an 8:15 p.m. ET clash on Thursday Night Football.
The Dolphins are 12.5-point underdogs at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 49.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around the southpaw signal-caller.
Best Tua Tagovailoa Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Tua Tagovailoa O23.5 Completions (-105)
If there’s one thing that Tagovailoa is, it’s accurate: his 72.9% completion percentage led all of football in 2024, and he is 40-for-55 (72.7%) so far this season. In part, that’s because McDaniel’s offense doesn’t require Tagovailoa to take deep shots; last season, he averaged just 5.7 intended air yards per passing attempt, easily the lowest figure in the league. Miami’s offense has enough playmakers capable of picking up yards after the catch that Tagovailoa should be able to attempt predominantly short routes. He’s actually been slinging it deeper so far this season, but results have been mixed: all three of Tagovailoa’s interceptions this season have come more than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
The Bills’ secondary isn’t great. Though they’ve allowed a league-low 24 completions and 292 passing yards this season, that’s mostly because the Baltimore Ravens were so dominant running the ball in Week 1 that Lamar Jackson barely needed to pass. In Week 2, the New York Jets’ Justin Fields was playing poorly before suffering a concussion, but Tyrod Taylor was solid in relief, completing seven of his 11 passes. Buffalo’s performance against Fields belies how poor the secondary is: the highest-graded cornerback who’s played more than 50% of the team’s defensive snaps this season is Christian Benford, who’s received just a 54.6 coverage grade. All in all, Pro Football Focus considers the Bills to have a below-average coverage unit.
Plus, Buffalo’s offense, led by reigning MVP Josh Allen, is arguably the league’s best and should jump out to a lead, and the Dolphins’ secondary has been miserable this season. As long as Allen and crew keep putting points on the board, Miami will need to manufacture points quickly to catch up. If the game is at all competitive entering the fourth quarter, the onus will be on Tagovailoa to throw.
Tua Tagovailoa Longest Completion O35.5 Yards (-110)
Prior to last week, Tyreek Hill hadn’t caught a pass of more than 30 yards for more than a year. The league’s most dangerous deep threat finally broke that streak early in the third quarter, when he adjusted to Tagovailoa’s underthrown deep ball for a 47-yard completion. Now that his chemistry with Tagovailoa has shown some signs of normalcy, it’s possible that the two end up completing a deep shot again. The southpaw will have to be aggressive if the Bills expectedly take a lead, so his longest completion could come late in the game with Buffalo playing prevent defense. It could also come if Hill or De’Von Achane takes a screen pass for big yardage.
Though the Bills have been good at making tackles this season, tying for the eighth-fewest missed tackles through the first two weeks, they were closer to league-average last season, and both Hill and Achane are elite at making defenders miss. Baltimore had plenty of explosive plays in the Week 1 shootout, including a 39-yard Zay Flowers reception early in the third quarter.
