Despite missing out on an AL East title, the Yankees still have plenty to play for. At 85-67, New York holds the American League’s top wildcard spot; trailing close behind are the Red Sox and Mariners. Keeping their rivals at bay means the Pinstripes need to pick up some wins down the stretch. That includes this weekend’s four-game series against the Orioles. Although Baltimore is in last place, this club has played inspired baseball in recent weeks. Will there be an upset tonight in Charm City? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s meeting between the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles.
New York is favored (-218) over Baltimore, with the over/under set at nine runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Yankees vs. Orioles prediction, preview
In this pivotal matchup for New York, staff ace Max Fried will get the nod. Despite a few midsummer hiccups, the lefty has been terrific during his first season in the Bronx. Through 181.1 innings pitched, the three-time All-Star owns a 3.03 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 169 strikeouts. He’s allowed three runs or less in each of his previous five outings. When the 31-year-old last faced Baltimore in June, he tossed six innings of three-run ball.
Following a disastrous start to their season, the Orioles have been much improved during the second half. Since the All-Star break, Baltimore has notched a solid 29-28 record. Still, this remains a flawed roster, especially on offense. This month, the O’s have scored just 55 runs, the league’s fourth-lowest mark during that stretch. Just five current regulars in this lineup have a wRC+ above 100. The absence of catcher Adley Rutschman (oblique) certainly doesn’t help, either. Also worth mentioning: Baltimore has a .672 OPS vs. left-handed pitching, tenth-lowest in baseball.
New York’s bread and butter on offense is turning baseballs into souvenirs. No team has hit more home runs this season than the Bombers (258), led by MVP favorite Aaron Judge. That makes this quite the challenge for Orioles starter Cade Povich. The 25-year-old surrendered three runs over 4.2 innings when these clubs met on April 30th. To make matters worse, this is a brutal spot for any southpaw. The Yankees have posted a league-best .790 OPS vs. left-handers. When pitching at home, Povich has accounted for a dismal 5.68 ERA.
Yankees vs. Orioles pick, best bet
Best Bet: Yankees over 2.5 total runs – 1st 5 innings (-120)
Povich’s struggles at Camden Yards makes him difficult to trust against any opponent. That’s especially true against baseball’s highest-scoring lineup. Judge and company should jump on the young hurler early and often tonight.
