The Dodgers and Giants begin a pivotal four-game series on Thursday, Sept. 18. The outcome will play a major role in determining the playoff seeding in the National League.
Los Angeles is a -171 favorite, while San Francisco is +140 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 7.5 runs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Thursday’s Dodgers vs. Giants matchup.
Dodgers vs. Giants prediction
The first game of this series is a pitching matchup one could only dream of having late in the season. As the two teams seek postseason spots, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Logan Webb will face off on the mound.
Yamamoto has looked every bit like the ace the Dodgers signed him to be. He has a 2.66 ERA across 162.1 innings this season, but his latest outings have been even more impressive. The right hander pitched seven innings against the Giants in his last outing, allowing just one hit and one earned run. The start prior, he nearly pitched a no-hitter until he gave up a home run with two outs in the ninth.
Yamamoto goes deep into games, having pitched at least seven innings in four of his last five starts. The one outlier was a six-inning start. He also struck out 10 batters and allowed one earned run in three straight games heading into this contest.
It’s hard to find a pitcher as hot as Yamamoto is right now. He’s dismantled lineups and looks ready for a serious postseason run.
The Giants aren’t in as great of a position, as they are two games back from the third Wild Card spot. San Francisco is nine games back in the NL West, making it nearly impossible to overtake the Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks for the title.
Webb will be on the mound to open this critical series. The Giants have 10 games remaining, including this four-game series with the Dodgers. Every game is a must-win as there are four Wild Card teams fighting for the third Wild Card spot. The Mets, Diamondbacks, Reds and Giants are contending for that final seed. Technically, the Cardinals, Marlins and Braves aren’t eliminated yet, but they’re further back in the race.
The Giants’ right hander last started against the Dodgers, though not in the same game as Yamamoto. Webb allowed six earned runs on 10 hits in 4.0 innings. It was an uncharacteristic start for Webb, who holds a 3.34 ERA through 188.2 innings this season.
He’s also a starter capable of pitching deep into games. Prior to his start against the Dodgers, he pitched at least six innings in six of his last seven games. Webb isn’t playing as well as Yamamoto, but he’s an excellent starter.
It makes for an incredible matchup in tonight’s series opener.
Dodgers vs. Giants pick, best bet
Although the two starting pitchers are great, I have a feeling the teams surpass tonight’s over of 7.5 runs. Yamamoto allowed just one earned run in all three of his latest starts, yet the Dodgers allowed five, four and four runs total.
Los Angeles’ bullpen couldn’t finish the job, which will be a concern tonight. The unit has a 4.29 ERA, which ranks 20th in the majors. Meanwhile, the Giants have the third best bullpen with a 3.47 ERA.
Despite this, Webb is coming off a brutal outing. It’s unlikely the Dodgers do that much damage early again, but it would be a surprise if they didn’t score anything against Webb.