Five players have won the NFL MVP award in back-to-back seasons. Through the first two games of the 2025 campaign, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen seems to have a solid shot of becoming the sixth. Allen made the first statement by leading a fourth-quarter comeback in Week 1 against fellow contender Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens before following it up by blowing out the New York Jets.
The Bills will have the opportunity to play in prime time again tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET, when they host the Miami Dolphins. Buffalo is 2-0, while the Dolphins are 0-2.
The Bills are 12.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 49.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Allen.
Best Josh Allen Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Josh Allen 250+ Passing Yards (+122)
Allen surpassed this prop in one quarter against the Ravens, throwing for 251 yards in the fourth-quarter alone, one of the most prolific single-quarter efforts in NFL history. It’d be unrealistic to expect him to put together quite that strong a performance again, but getting plus-odds to hit 250 yards seems like good value, especially since he’s hit that number in 46 of his 84 proper starts since his prime began in 2020. He fell short of that number in Week 2, but much of that can be attributed to Buffalo’s conservative game plan after taking the lead.
While the Jets have a few decent defenders, including two-time All-Pro First Teamer Sauce Gardner, Miami’s secondary is extremely unimpressive. The Dolphins traded away Jalen Ramsey in the summer for Minkah Fitzpatrick, and so far, the cornerback trio of Jack Jones, Rasul Douglas, and Jason Marshall Jr. has been quite poor. Only Douglas has been even average in coverage: Jones and Marshall both have among the 14 worst coverage grades of the 98 qualified corners this season. Storm Duck, who missed the Dolphins’ Week 2 defeat with an injury but would split time with Douglas if healthy, allowed three completions for 51 yards and a score in Week 1, good for a 156.2 passer rating. Miami allowed 272 passing yards to Daniel Jones and 230 to Drake Maye, and Allen is a far better quarterback than either.
The danger is that the scoreline will be just as lopsided as it was in Week 2 and that Allen won’t need to throw as much. If the Dolphins play like they did in Week 1, allowing the Indianapolis Colts to score on every single drive, it’s possible that the score line could get out of hand quickly, but Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill finally rekindled some of their chemistry in the narrow Week 2 loss to the New England Patriots. Buffalo’s secondary hasn’t been great in coverage either this season, which should allow Tagovailoa to do just enough to keep Allen throwing.
Josh Allen O6.5 Rushing Attempts (-104)
Allen has always been a rushing threat, recording at least 100 carries and six touchdowns in each of his full NFL seasons, but he took that up another notch after the Bills’ Week 12 bye last season. In his 11 starts before the bye, he averaged 6.1 rushing attempts per game, which he bumped up to 7.0 per game in his five full games after and 9.7 per game during the playoffs. The 14 runs he made against Baltimore in Week 1 represented the joint-third-highest total of his career, and he likely would have attempted more than six against New York had he not sat out the last couple of drives.
Neither Jones nor Maye were afraid to run on Miami. The Dolphins have allowed 17 rushing attempts to quarterbacks this season, the second-most in football, as well as a league-leading three touchdowns. While Jones is a dual-threat quarterback who has averaged 5.7 rushing attempts per game for his career, Maye carried the ball just 4.2 times per game as a rookie last season. But Jones took six carries for 26 yards and two scores, while Maye turned his career-high 10 attempts into 31 yards and a touchdown. Until Miami indicates that it’s capable of stopping quarterback runs, I’ll keep backing Allen to take off.
