There might not be two teams currently moving faster in opposite directions. We know what the Bills are at this point. After a half-decade of playoff disappointment, Buffalo is completely Super Bowl or bust, and the team has looked the part through the first two weeks of the season.
Then there’s the Dolphins, who seem like they can’t even get out of their own way. After back-to-back embarrassing losses to begin 2025, it feels like Miami is on its way to yet another rebuild. Could a loss to the Bills and a 0-3 start jump start that process and get Mike McDaniel fired?
We’re getting ahead of ourselves now. Before we figure out all that, let’s simply pick who is going to be the first touchdown scorer in this evening’s Thursday Night Football clash.
Dolphins vs. Bills First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
De’Von Achane First Touchdown Scorer (+900)
De’Von Achane is the only bright spot on the Dolphins’ roster through two contests and his odds would certainly be shorter if not for the nearly two-touchdown spread on DraftKings Sportsbook. That said, Miami doesn’t have to win or cover to find the end zone first. It simply has to lose a coin toss. If that happens, Achane is suddenly the most dangerous man on the field. There was talk of Miami needing to replace Achane in short-yardage and goal line situations this season, yet nothing through Week 1 and Week 2 suggests that the Texas A&M product isn’t one of the NFL’s true “bell cow” backs. Achane owns an 83.8% snap share in 2025, while he also leads the Dolphins in targets (14), receptions (11) and receiving touchdowns (2). That final number could be three, too, if not for Achane just stepping out of bounds in the final minute against the Patriots. The man is currently Miami’s first, second and third option on offense. He’s basically the entire team.
Dalton Kincaid First Touchdown Scorer (+1500)
The prop lines make the Bills’ options a little tough to navigate, honestly. Aside from Jalen Hurts, it’s wild to see a quarterback have first touchdown odds as low as Josh Allen (+450) does on Thursday, yet the man leads all players — not just QBs — in rushing attempts inside the opponent’s five-yard line through two games (5). Still, in my mind, Buffalo won’t need to get that close to find the end zone on its first drive. Not with the way the Dolphins have been eviscerated through the air. Miami’s surrendered over 9.0 yards per opponent pass attempt in both Week 1 and Week 2, as a secondary that most ranked as the worst in the NFL coming into 2025 has perfectly lived up to expectations. Dalton Kincaid is a big-bodied tight end that the Bills clearly view as a pass-catching option, as the former first-round pick has blocked on just two of his passing snaps so far this season. It’s not empty volume, either, as Kincaid was targeted on six of his 19 routes (31.6%) last Sunday versus the Jets.
