The Chicago Cubs became the third team to clinch an MLB playoff spot on Wednesday, but the Cincinnati Reds remain right in the thick of the Wild Card race. The two division rivals are set to face off Thursday evening, with Hunter Greene and Colin Rea slated to take the mound on each side.
The Reds are -149 moneyline favorites in the series opener, while the run total set at 8.5. Here is a preview of the Thursday night showdown featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Reds vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Cincinnati will be fighting for its postseason life for the rest of September, sitting 2.0 games back of the New York Mets for the third and final NL Wild Card spot. The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants are right in the thick of things as well, but only one of those four teams is likely to reach the postseason.
As a result, every game is a must-win for the Reds from here on out. Going with their ace against a tough opponent is an obvious move, even if he struggled last time out. Greene gave up five earned runs in 2.1 innings against the Athletics on Saturday, allowing two home runs and four walks. That made for his worst appearance in nearly five months, as well as his first outing this season that didn’t last at least 3.0 frames.
Greene still boasts a 3.01 ERA, 0.993 WHIP, 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings, 2.2 walks per nine innings and a 3.5 WAR on the season, so it isn’t as if he has made a habit of imploding in 2025. At the same time, he gave up two runs in just 4.0 innings the last time he faced the Cubs, all while the Reds went on to lose 13-6. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Willi Castro and Nico Hoerner have each hit a home run off Greene in their careers. Seiya Suzuki has hit two, batting .467 with a 1.600 OPS in the head-to-head matchup.
Working in Greene’s favor is the fact that the Cubs no longer have that much to play for, given the Milwaukee Brewers are 5.0 games up in the race for the division title. The contest is also in Cincinnati, where Greene is 4-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in 2025.
Rea, meanwhile, got shelled by the Reds in each of his last two appearances against the club. He gave up six earned in 5.0 innings on May 24, then six more across 5.2 frames on May 30. After entering those two outings with a 2.38 ERA on the season, he has a 4.97 ERA ever since. The veteran right-hander has allowed just one home run in his last nine starts after giving up 19 in his previous 15, but opponents are still batting .344 against him in that span. Chicago is also 1-3 over Rea’s last four starts, a span in which he has posted a 6.05 ERA.
Reds vs. Cubs pick, best bet
Best Bet: Reds vs. Cubs o8.5 (-108)
Only one of the six games between the Reds and Cubs in Chicago this season exceeded eight combined runs. The series that took place in Cincinnati, meanwhile, featured two 19-run games and a 10-run game. Greene has given up 3.0 runs per game over his last five appearances, while Rea has given up 3.4 runs per game over his last four. Chicago also used three relievers Monday, four on Tuesday and four on Wednesday, so a bullpen reset could be in play if things start to get out of hand.
The Cubs are averaging 4.9 runs per game since Sept. 9. The Reds are averaging 5.2 runs per game since Sept. 13, and that includes a shutout from red-hot St. Louis Cardinals rookie Michael McGreevy on Tuesday. Rea doesn’t seem to be in enough of a groove to shut Cincinnati down to that extent, so Cincinnati could very well take advantage. Greene’s last outing makes it hard to lean too hard on Reds moneyline, so the over on 8.5 runs — which has longer odds — actually feels like the safer play.
Strong Lean: Seiya Suzuki 1+ RBI (+202)
Suzuki is an RBI machine, ranking ninth in the NL with 91 on the season. In 15 career at-bats against Greene, Suzuki has six RBIs. He also hit .583 with two home runs, six RBIs and a 1.976 OPS during Chicago’s last three-game series in Cincinnati. Suzuki batting .193 with nine RBIs in his last 48 games is reason for hesitation, but that is accounted for in the steeper odds.
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