Week 3’s edition of Thursday Night Football brings a divisional showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. While this Miami squad travels northward knowing they’re likely outmatched against a top AFC contender, there’s still a chance the team can keep things competitive in a potential shootout spot. With the Dolphins in line to air the ball out, wide receiver Tyreek Hill enters a potential smash spot with plenty of volume up for grabs.
Here are the best Tyreek Hill prop bets to consider for Dolphins at Bills on Thursday Night Football in Week 3.
Best Tyreek Hill prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
The Dolphins have seen a rough start to their 2025 campaign without a win in their first two contests. The team put forth two entirely different efforts in those outings, mustering only eight points and 211 total yards in Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts before scoring 27 points with 358 total yards last week against the New England Patriots. Miami appeared disjointed to start the season and the vibes haven’t been great all-around, but for the purposes of this piece, we’ll focus in on the passing game in particular.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa threw for just 114 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in Week 1, but followed it up with a much better outing of 315 yards, two touchdowns and one pick in Week 2. Of course, Hill’s production will ebb and flow with his signal-caller’s — the veteran wideout posted 40 yards while catching four of six targets to start, then tallied six receptions for 109 yards on seven targets last Sunday. If the passing game looks good, Hill shouldn’t fall off the age cliff just yet. Plus, he’s still seen the second-most targets among teammates in a pretty condensed situation while competing with just Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane as real threats for that target share.
However, there are some concerns regarding Hill’s consistency on a week-to-week basis. The Dolphins’ offensive line has already allowed eight sacks through two games as Tagovailoa faces constant pressure behind a poor unit. That certainly limits some of the upside Miami’s speedy receivers used to see in the deep game since there’s less time for plays to develop downfield. That feels like even more of an issue against a Buffalo pass rush that boasts six sacks in their two contests, and that pressure should remain quite good even with defensive tackle Ed Oliver out. The issues only compound with the Bills’ defense allowing only 124 passing yards per game, the fewest of any team so far.
Now, the pass volume on Thursday night may see an uptick as the Dolphins try to remain competitive despite entering as 12.5-point underdogs. In a game in which Miami enters totally outmatched, Tagovailoa should sling the ball often. With that in mind, a volume-based play on DraftKings Sportsbook feels much safer rather than one of Hill’s yardage prop bets. Since Miami should trail throughout this contest, over 5.5 receptions brings solid value at -115 odds. With 13 targets across his two games (trailing Achane for the team lead by just one), Hill will almost certainly see enough looks to go over this receptions prop while his team operates in a negative game script.
