This is the finale of a four-game series in Tampa Bay between the Rays and visiting Toronto Blue Jays.
Chris Bassitt is scheduled to pitch for Toronto, while Shane Baz is scheduled to pitch for Tampa Bay.
Blue Jays at Rays prediction, preview
Chris Bassitt has been solid for Toronto this season, posting a 3.9 ERA and a 4.03 FIP through 166 innings. The strikeout rate is 22.8% while the walk rate is 7%. The average exit velocity is 87.5 mph and the hard hit rate is 36.2%. He’s allowed 22 home runs.
13 of the 22 home runs have come off the bat of lefties. The K-BB% is 11.9% against lefties compared to 20.8% against righties. Bassitt has been much better at home, with a 6.8% higher K-BB%, lower HR/9 and FIP of 3.49 vs. 4.71 on the road.
In 30 starts, Bassitt has allowed more than three earned runs eight times, but only once since July. He’s gone at least six innings 13 times. He faced Tampa Bay twice this season, both in May. In the first meeting, Bassit went 5.2 innings, walked two and struck out six while allowing one earned run on seven hits. That game was at home. Two starts later, he faced the Rays in Tampa Bay and went four innings, walked two and struck out two while allowing five earned runs on nine hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Rays rank 10th in strikeout rate and 15th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 12th in MLB.
Shane Baz has a 5.15 ERA and 4.47 FIP through 157.1 innings. The strikeout rate is solid at 24.9% but the walk rate is high at 8.8%. He’s allowed 26 home runs, as the barrel rate is 9.8% and the hard hit rate is 40.1%. The swinging strike rate is 11.6% and the chase rate is 30%.
17 of the 26 home runs have come off the bat of righties. 18 of the 26 home runs have been served up at home. Baz has reverse splits, as the K-BB% is 8.2% higher against lefties and the FIP is 3.58 vs. 5.2 against righties. The numbers are close at home and on the road, but the home run discrepancy makes the FIP much higher at home.
In 29 starts, Baz has allowed more than three earned runs 11 times while going at least six innings 13 times. He faced Toronto twice back in May. In the first meeting in Toronto, Baz went 4.2 innings, walked two and struck out six while allowing three earned runs on four hits. At home two starts later, he went 5.2 innings, walked three and struck out four while allowing one earned run on four hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Blue Jays have the 29th-highest strikeout rate, the 13th-best ISO, and rank third in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, Toronto ranks 15th in FIP while Tampa Bay ranks fifth since August 1.
Blue Jays at Rays pick, best bet
Bassitt has had issues with lefties and away from home. Tampa Bay loves to platoony loony and will send out plenty of lefties against him. Baz has reverse splits and Toronto has some potent righties in the lineup.
