This is the finale of a three-game series in New York between the Mets and visiting San Diego Padres.
Randy Vasquez is scheduled to pitch for San Diego, while Jonah Tong is scheduled to pitch for New York.
Padres at Mets prediction, preview
Randy Vasquez has a 3.72 ERA through 123.1 innings and allowed only 15 home runs. The FIP is much higher at 4.94, though. The BABIP is only .264 while the strand rate is 78.9%. The strikeout rate is a miniscule 13.4% while the walk rate is high at 9.3%. The barrel rate is 11.2% while the swinging strike rate is only 6.7%.
The K-BB% is 6.2% higher against lefties, but the HR/9 is 1.31 vs. 0.92 against righties. He’s essentially been site neutral, as in pretty mediocre wherever and whenever he pitches.
In 24 starts, Vasquez has allowed more than three earned runs four times while going at least six innings eight times. He is coming off a six inning shutout with nine strikeouts, but that was against the Colorado Rockies at home, so not sure it counts. This will be his first time facing New York this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Mets rank 22nd in strikeout rate, second in ISO, and first in MLB in wOBA.
Jonah Tong has made his first three MLB starts this season, pitching a total of 11.2 innings. He’s averaging 95.6 mph on the fastball and posting a 23.6% strikeout rate. That ain’t bad. Everything else? Not great. The swinging strike rate is 8.2% with a 20.5% chase rate. The walk rate is 12.7%, the barrel rate is 11.4% and he’s allowed three home runs. The ERA is 8.49. The strand rate is only 38% while the BABIP is .313, but that only brings the FIP down to 6.06.
All three home runs have been served up on the road and come off the bat of righties. The K-BB% is 16.1% against righties, but that 4.5 HR/9 is gross. The strikeout rate is only 16.7% against lefties with a 12.5% walk rate. Tong has been much better at home. The walk rate is only 9.4% while it’s 17.4% on the road.
In three starts, Tong has gone five, six and 0.2 innings. He’s allowed one, four and six earned runs. This will be his first time facing San Diego this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Padres have the 28th-highest strikeout rate in MLB, the 26th-best ISO, and rank 16th in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, San Diego ranks fourth in FIP, while New York ranks 13th.
Padres at Mets pick, best bet
Both pitchers aren’t great, but I actually like them to be somewhat effective in this one, especially Tong for some weird reason.
