It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of Josh Allen, it was the age of Squishing the Fish, it was the epoch of domination, it was the epoch of ineptitude, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the fall of despair.
The Buffalo Bills are 2-0 and sit atop the AFC East and are the current favorites to win the Super Bowl at +425. per DraftKings Sportsbook. They opened the season with an impressive come-from-behind victory over the Baltimore Ravens, a team that has the second-lowest odds at +475 to win it all. In Week 2, the Bills easily dispatched of the New York Jets.
Buffalo is currently 27th in pass rate at 50.34%. Part of that is due to the rushing prowess of Josh Allen, while the game script against the Jets allowed for 43 rushes. Allen has posted the sixth-highest EPA per dropback while the Bills as a team are tied for the second-highest EPA per carry. Translation: this offense is good.
The pass defense is 16th in EPA per dropback, but the 58.5% completion percentage is sixth-best while the 12.8% sack rate is tops in the NFL. The passer rating of 104.9 is 11th-highest while the 12.2 yards per completion is eighth-most.
The rush defense. Oh, the rush defense. 6.8 yards per carry is no bueno but there is some optimism when looking deeper. Sure, in Week 1, Derrick Henry carried 18 times for 169 and two touchdowns but the unit held Breece Hall to 10 rushes for 29 yards last week. Many of the rushing numbers have come from the quarterbacks, as Lamar Jackson carried six times for 70 yards, Justin Fields rushed five times for 49 yards and Tyrod Taylor had three carries for 21 yards. There will be no threat of rushing yards from Tua Tagovailoa in this one.
Miami is scuffling big time. They got trounced in the opener, 33-8 by the Indianapolis Colts. In the home opener last week, the New England Patriots marched out of town with the 33-27 victory. Much press has been given to the potential ouster of Mike McDaniel, but is he really the issue? This seems like more of a roster construction thing.
It all starts in the trenches, as the Dolphins have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Per Matt Bitonti of Footballguys, Miami is dead last in run blocking and 29th in pass blocking. Per Sumersports, Tagovailoa has had 2.45 seconds to throw on average – only four quarterbacks have had fewer time.
Tagovailoa has the sixth-worst EPA per dropback and the 11% sack rate is the third-highest. Miami has the 10th-highest EPA per carry with a 5.1 yards per carry. Devon Achane rushed seven times for 55 yards in the opener, but that game was over by halftime. In a competitive game against the New England Patriots, Achane rushed 11 times for only 30 yards.
DraftKings Sportsbook has BUF -12.5 over MIA with the total at 49.5.
The main question for this game will likely be, will the Bills sweep the leg? The answer is likely yes, but I don’t think they pour it on like what Detroit did to Chicago last week. Bills onslaughts will likely be the favored roster construction – not the 2 by 2 formation in Die Hard.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (MIA @ BUF)
Captain’s Picks
Josh Allen ($18,600 CP): Allen only put up 11.82 FPTS last week, as he wasn’t needed much in the 30-10 win. James Cook was the beneficiary, rushing 21 times for 132 yards and two touchdowns, translating to 29.5 FPTS. I do think Cook will get his, but the ownership will likely be sky high for Cook at captain because of last week’s game and the huge spread in this one. But what if Allen rushes or sneaks in for the touchdowns? What if Tagovailoa plays well and the Dolphins keep pace? Then Allen would take the cape off the hangar and do Josh Allen things. We all know about the ceiling, which is the 41.76 FPTS he put up in Week 1.
UTIL Plays
De’Von Achane ($10,800): Achane is one of the most explosive runni….scratch that. Achane is one of the most explosive players in the NFL and can take a touch to the house on any play. He’s going to get his carries, but where he makes his hay is in the passing game. In two games against the Bills last season, Achane put up 29.5 and 32.1 FPTS, rushing 22 times for 96 yards in the first meeting while catching all seven targets for 69 yards and a touchdown. In the second contest, Achane carried 12 times for 63 yards and a touchdown while hauling in all eight targets for 58 yards and a touchdown. McDaniel is going to scheme Achane looks and it helps that the Bills allowed the third-most receptions to running backs last season. In addition, defenses can’t focus primarily on Achane because Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle still have to be accounted for.
James Cook ($10,600): The Bills don’t have a target hog in the passing game but the FPTS production is concentrated between Allen and Cook. Buffalo is going to score points in this one. There’s no doubt about it. The questions are how many and by whom? More than likely, it will be Allen and Cook scoring the majority of them.
Tanner Conner ($800): The passing pie is concentrated amongst Hill, Waddle and Achane in Miami. Tight ends have received four targets so far this season and Conner received all in Week 1. He finished with a….yawn…..two catches for 20 yards. He did get a red zone look. The snap rate is only around 50%, though, as he’s sharing duties with Julian Hill. I’m not expecting much from Conner, as he’s essentially a salary saver to fit in higher-priced players, but there’s a more than a Lloyd Christmas chance that he provides a little something something.
Fades
Tyreek Hill ($9,800): Can Hill still score from anywhere on the field? Affirmative, but defenses are no longer dummy heads and have figured out how to slow him down. And the Bills are intimately familiar with Hill and the Miami offense. In two meetings last season, Hill finished with 6.6 and 12 FPTS.
THE OUTCOME
This game could be interesting and exciting because the Dolphins still have tons of playmakers, but the offensive line is so porous, while the defense wishes it had a shell to bury its head in and cry.
Final Score: Dolphins 20, Bills 40
