The Cleveland Guardians are 5.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central with just over a week left in the regular season. The Guardians won the first game of this series on Tuesday, 7-5 in extra innings, and they’ll look to stay hot on the road as they push toward the postseason. Their quest continues at 6:40 p.m. ET in what should be another great game in the Motor City.
The Guardians have won 10 of their last 11 games and come into this game 79-71. The Tigers are still 85-66 despite losing four of their last five games, and they seem to still be in control of the AL Central with a 5.5-game lead with 11 games left on the schedule. If the Guardians win the next two games in this series, though, it could make the final week of the season very interesting, especially with a three-game set in Cleveland on Tuesday through Thursday of next week. The Guardians are also in the mix for the AL Wild Card, and they start the day 2.5 games behind the Red Sox for the third and final Wild Card spot.
The Tigers are home favorites at -144 on the Moneyline, with the run total for the game at eight. Let’s preview this Wednesday night matchup with the help of some odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Guardians at Tigers prediction, preview
As you can tell from that run line, the pitchers for this matchup are pretty solid. Jack Flaherty takes the mound for the Tigers while Gavin Williams will draw the start for the Guardians.
Flaherty is 8-13 on the season after returning to Detroit as a free agent, and he has a 4.69 ERA, 3.88 FIP and 10.6 K/9. He has made one start against the Guardians, allowing three runs in 6 2/3 innings in a loss back in May. He’s alternated good outings and bad outings in his last few games. He was effective on the road against the Royals and Yankees but struggled in home starts against the Royals and White Sox. In those two home outings, he allowed 12 runs on 16 hits in just 9 1/3 innings, but in his two road starts, he gave up just one run on six hits in 10 2/3 innings.
The Guardians’ lineup has been hot and cold all season, but they have been doing enough to carry the team during their recent hot streak. Tuesday night they had four extra-base hits in the 10th inning to secure the win.
They’ll send Gavin Williams to the mound to oppose Flaherty, and it’s their pitching that has really fueled their recent success. Over the last two weeks, they have a 1.69 ERA and 2.97 FIP. They have racked up 106 strikeouts in 13 games while holding opponents to a .194 batting average.
Williams has given up just seven earned runs over his last five starts, going 3-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 4.58 FIP while striking out 25 in 28 2/3 innings. He held the Tigers to just one hit in six shutout innings when he faced them in early July, and he’ll look to put together another strong start on Wednesday. He has gone at least six innings in each of his last three starts, earning a Quality Start for each outing.
The Tigers’ offense has been strong this season, but they have only averaged 4.5 runs over the last week and scored fewer than five runs in four straight before scoring five runs on Tuesday.
Guardians vs. Tigers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8 runs (-108)
It’s hard to pick against the Guardians’ current role or the Tigers’ impressive record for the season, but Cleveland’s pitching staff has been so good lately that I’m more confident in the under than either offense right now. Williams has been very strong, and before Tuesday, the Guardians’ run totals had been under eight for six straight games.
Strong Lean: Gavin Williams over 16.5 outs recorded (-102)
If you really want to go spicy, Williams to record a win is at +219. This outs recorded line feels much safer, though, at just about even money. He went six innings (18 outs) against the Tigers earlier this season and at least that many in three straight starts. He has gone over this outs recorded line in nine of his last 13 games and 12 of his 18 starts since June 1.
