Ohtani enters this game in supernova form: he just became the sixth player ever to post back-to-back 50-HR seasons, hitting No. 50 on Tuesday night and throwing five no-hit innings in the same game. That puts his 2025 line at 50 HR, 1.006 OPS, the kind of profile that forces pitchers to choose between living out of the zone or risking a single swing deciding the night. And, of course, with a game as marquee as this, his prop bet market on DraftKings is absolutely buzzing.
To wit—below, check out my favorite Shohei Ohtani props to consider from this late-night tilt. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Best Shohei Ohtani prop bets for Dodgers vs. Phillies
Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+320)
His underlying quality is elite: 94.8 mph average exit velocity, 58.3% hard-hit rate, and a ~21–22% barrel rate, all top-tier indicators for one-swing outcomes. Against four-seamers and sliders that drift up, Ohtani’s all-fields lift plays even in a run-suppressing park—Dodger Stadium’s three-year Statcast park factors show overall runs below league average while home runs sit ~101–102 (slightly above average), i.e., fewer baserunners but punished mistakes still leave. In short: he doesn’t need many mistakes to cash this.
The opponent context is exactly the kind of puzzle he breaks. Jesús Luzardo brings strikeouts (200 K in 169.2 IP; 1.26 WHIP this season) and swing-and-miss across the arsenal, with contact quality allowed that’s solid on the whole (xwOBA ~.294–.295). His pitch shapes fit the plan you’d expect: the four-seam shows arm-side ride, the changeup carries around 17 inches of horizontal fade, and he’ll land the slider/sweeper off the plate to same-side bats—profiles that usually push right-handers (and elite lefties with coverage) into a pick-your-poison decision. With the Dodgers thinner without Will Smith (10-day IL; right-hand bone bruise), the lineup funnels more intent to Ohtani/Freeman in high-impact counts, which actually raises Ohtani’s HR equity—fewer three-single rallies to wait for, more green lights to hunt early in the zone and accept two-strike lift when Luzardo refuses to challenge.
Shohei Ohtani 1+ walks (+175)
Alternatively, I like a free pass for Shohei, too. His walk profile in 2025 is concrete and robust: he now has 105 walks on the season, making him the first Dodger in 25 years to reach 100+ walks in a campaign. His walk rate is 15.4%, which sits among his highest in career walk-rate years, and in his recent stretch he’s drawn 27 walks over his last 30 games. That’s a sustained run, not a fluke. His recent game logs show walks in five consecutive games entering tonight, and he’s averaging ~1.75 walks per start over his last 10 games. These numbers make an Over 0.5 Walks prop look solid even before you factor opponent context.
On the plate discipline side, his BB% of 15.4%, coupled with a relatively restrained chase and swing profile (he doesn’t swing wildly out of the zone), means pitchers are forced to nibble rather than challenge over the heart. When you have batters who punish mistakes as effectively as Ohtani does, pitch counts get pushed up, which increases walk chances especially when facing left-handers.
Jesús Luzardo’s recent form supports this as well. His strikeout stuff is strong—roughly 200 Ks in 169.2 IP with a WHIP around 1.26. His control is good but not perfect; his walk percentage sits in the 8-9% range this season. His fastball has above-average vertical break, and his slider/changeup mix tends to live off-edge or arm-side when he’s behind in the count. That’s exactly when a hitter like Ohtani with discipline gets the free pass.
With the Dodgers missing Will Smith, run production behind Ohtani takes a hit, meaning pitchers have more reason to avoid challenging him deeply in the zone—with free pass being the safer path.
