The Atlanta Braves entered the 2025 season with somewhat realistic championship ambitions. They made the playoffs as a Wild Card last season, and 2023 MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. was set to return from the torn ACL that ended his 2024 campaign early.
It hasn’t worked out that way. Tonight, they could officially be eliminated if they lose to the Washington Nationals or if the New York Mets beat the San Diego Padres, as they trail the Mets by 9.5 games for the third and final Wild Card spot entering their 10th-to-last game of the season.
The game will start at 4:05 p.m. ET in Washington. Brad Lord will take the mound for the Nationals, while Hurston Waldrep gets the call for Atlanta.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals prediction, preview
The Braves have been beset by injuries all season. A majority of Atlanta’s season-opening starting rotation is no longer healthy, and veteran catcher Sean Murphy became the latest victim of the injury curse when he underwent season-ending surgery to repair a labral tear last week. Even Acuña has posted just a .700 OPS in 30 games since returning from a calf strain. The Braves winning each of the first three games against an already-eliminated Washington team is hardly a reason to brag; the Nationals have been even worse than Atlanta offensively this month, and sophomore sensation James Wood has posted just a .635 OPS since the All-Star break, going deep only thrice.
The Braves’ recent struggles have affected even Waldrep, who had been in the middle of a tremendous rookie season. The 23-year-old had given up two or fewer runs in each of his first seven starts before the Houston Astros battered him for eight runs on eight hits in 4.2 innings last Friday. Still, that start came at home, and he’s yet to give up more than one run in any start on the road this season. Advanced numbers are fairly kind to him: his 3.93 expected ERA would rank above the MLB median if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify, and his barrel rate would rank in the top quintile. He’s struggled to induce chases and gives up too many walks, but Washington has walked at the third-lowest clip this season.
Waldrep will face another rookie, Lord, who has made 45 appearances (16 starts) and pitched to a solid 4.21 ERA. The issue is that Lord has been far better as a reliever than a starter, posting a 4.93 mark across his 16 starts and a 2.79 mark in his 29 relief appearances. However, he’s coming off of two solid starts in a row, allowing one run on two hits in 5.2 innings against the Chicago Cubs on September 6 and spinning six innings of three-run ball against the Pittsburgh Pirates last Friday. Though advanced stats suggest that Waldrep has been the better pitcher, Lord has also done a good job at avoiding barrels, thanks to his 84th-percentile ground ball rate. That might not actually an asset, though; of the Nationals’ infielders, only Brady House has been an above-average fielder this season.
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+112)
Not only has Lord been worse as a starter than a reliever and slowed down since the All-Star break, he’s also put up an ERA north of five at home. Atlanta has won each of the first three games of this series by three or more runs.
Strong Lean: James Wood 2+ Strikeouts (Batter) (+123)
Wood has struck out multiple times in 10 of his 14 games this month and now leads all of baseball with 209 strikeouts this season. Waldrep has had roughly a league-average strikeout rate but is capable of big numbers, fanning six or more batters in four of his eight starts in 2025.
