All of the sudden, the Astros find themselves out of first place in the American League West. Hot on Houston’s tail are the in-state rival Rangers. Despite losing several key contributors, Texas is just three games out of a playoff spot. Which of these two foes will come out on top tonight? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s meeting between the Rangers and the Astros.
Texas is favored (-119) over Houston, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Rangers vs. Astros prediction, preview
The Rangers made a splash at the trade deadline when they acquired Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly. Now, Texas needs their newest hurler to deliver a stellar performance. Since joining the team, he’s posted a 3.19 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 41 strikeouts. During that time, he’s allowed more than three earned runs only once over eight outings. That includes a seven-inning, one-run masterpiece against the Astros on September 5th.
Facing Kelly is a challenge, even for the league’s best offenses. That’s especially true for a Houston squad that has struggled for most of the season at the plate. The team is averaging just 4.25 runs per game this season, the sixth-lowest mark in baseball. Granted, the prolonged absence of All-Star Yordan Alvarez didn’t help. Unfortunately, the slugger left Monday’s contest with a sprained ankle; it’s doubtful he suits up tonight. Just five regulars in this Astros lineup have recorded a wRC+ of 100 or greater. Since August 1st, Houston owns the league’s eighth-lowest OPS (.692) and ninth-lowest batting average (.239).
A victory for the home team will likely come down to starter A.J. Blubaugh. The rookie has looked solid so far, albeit through just 22.0 career innings of work. In that stretch, he’s put up a 2.45 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 25 strikeouts. When he faced Texas earlier this month, the 25-year-old tossed 2.2 scoreless innings while allowing only one hit. Still, that doesn’t mean this will be a walk in the park. Despite missing Corey Seager, several Rangers hitters have stepped up in recent weeks. Since September 1st, Jake Burger (.912 OPS) and Michael Helman (.908) have been on fire. Still, as a whole, this offense has scored the sixth-fewest runs in baseball this month (50).
Rangers vs. Astros pick, best bet
Best Bet: Rangers ML (-119)
For all their issues at the plate, the Rangers enter tonight with a clear edge on the mound. Kelly’s job should be that much easier without having to pitch against Alvarez. Blubaugh, while promising, is relatively untested. Even if the rookie keeps things scoreless, Texas should find a way to score against a depleted Astros bullpen.
