In a week filled with intense MLB action, Marlins-Rockies leaves plenty to be desired.
Fear not, baseball fans: this is actually a somewhat respectable pitching matchup! For the surprisingly competitive Marlins, high-upside arm Eury Perez is slated to take the mound. The Rockies will counter with staff ‘ace’ Kyle Freeland. Can either of these two afterthoughts earn a win tonight? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s meeting between the Marlins and the Rockies.
Miami is favored (-149) over Colorado, with the over/under set at ten runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Marlins vs. Rockies prediction, preview
What a year it’s been for the Marlins. The club stumbled out of the gates, slumping towards the bottom of the NL East. However, the past few months have seen this team look far more respectable. Since July 1st, Miami has earned a record of 33-35. That’s been made possible in large part by a surprisingly dangerous lineup. The Fish are averaging .37 runs per game, 16th-most in baseball. On the road, that number has surged up to 4.83, the league’s fifth-best mark.
What better place for an offense to rake than Coors Field? This hitter’s paradise has been a boon for many National League bats over the past three decades. Granted, it hasn’t helped the last-place Rockies much. At 41-109, Colorado is firmly entrenched as one of the worst teams in recent memory. If there’s any upside on this roster, catcher Hunter Goodman (119 wRC+) has been a pleasant surprise. Outside of that, there isn’t much to write home about with this group.
If (big if) the Rockies were to earn a win tonight, they have the best man for the job. Kyle Freeland’s numbers are far from impressive (4.97 ERA, 1.46 WHIP). Regardless, on the league’s worst pitching staff, the veteran is a breath of fresh air. The 32-year-old comes into this contest on a groove, allowing six earned runs over his previous four starts (2.75 ERA). Two of those appearances came at Coors Field. When he last faced the Marlins, on June 4th, the left-hander tossed 6.1 scoreless innings.
For the visitors, the previously mentioned Eury Perez will be on the bump. It’s been a bizarre season for the 22-year-old, who spent all of April and May on the injured list. His numbers are fairly middling: 4.67 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 79 strikeouts through 81.0 innings. However, he’s a far better at home (2.63 ERA) than on the road (6.44). In addition, a fly ball-heavy arsenal (36.8 FB%) might not play well in high altitude. During Perez’s only career outing at Coors, in 2023, he coughed up three earned runs over 4.1 innings pitched.
Marlins vs. Rockies pick, best bet
Best Bet: Rockies ML (+119)
Given Perez’s struggles on the road, this could be a nightmare start. In comparison, Freeland enters Tuesday on a high note. Miami’s underrated offense should find some success, but I don’t trust them as heavy favorites. It sounds scary, but Colorado offers plenty of upside at plus money tonight.
