This is the opener of a three-game series in Milwaukee between the Brewers and visiting Los Angeles Angels.
Caden Dana is scheduled to pitch for Los Angeles, while Freddy Peralta is scheduled to pitch for Milwaukee.
Angels at Brewers prediction, preview
Caden Dana has appeared in four games and made two starts this season, totaling 15.2 innings. His swinging strike rate is 10.4%, and his strikeout rate is an impressive 26.8%, but the walk rate is a concerning 15.5%, while the chase rate is just 18.4%. He’s already allowed four home runs, and his 6.32 ERA is backed up by a nearly identical 6.34 FIP. The barrel rate is 10%, and the hard-hit rate is 42.5%.
Three of the four home runs have come off the bats of righties, and all four have been surrendered at home. His K-BB% is 12.7% lower against right-handed hitters, while the FIP in those matchups balloons to 10.63. His K-BB% is 9.4% at home compared to 16.7% on the road, and the FIP is 8.02 at home versus 2.75 on the road.
Dana has gone at least five innings only once. In his most recent outing, he struck out nine but walked five and allowed five earned runs on five hits. This will be his first time facing Milwaukee this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Brewers rank 24th in strikeout rate, 18th in ISO, and ninth in MLB in wOBA.
Freddy Peralta still misses bats and issues walks, but he’s done an excellent job limiting the long ball this season. His HR/9 sits at 0.99, down from 1.35 and 1.41 over the past two seasons. His ERA is a career-low 2.69, though he’s been a bit fortunate—his .244 BABIP and 84.7% strand rate contribute to a higher 3.64 FIP. The average exit velocity is 87.6 mph, the barrel rate is 8.4%, and the hard-hit rate is 32.8%.
Eleven of the 18 home runs allowed have come off righties, and 13 have been given up on the road. His K-BB% is 9% higher against righties, but the FIPs are the same. Peralta has been significantly better at home, where his K-BB% is 4.9% higher and the FIP is 2.73, compared to 4.58 on the road.
In 30 starts, Peralta has allowed more than three earned runs just four times. He’s gone at least six innings in 12 of those outings. While he was lit up for five earned runs in his last start, he did not allow a single earned run in the five starts prior. This will be his first time facing the Angels this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Angels have the highest strikeout rate in MLB, the 11th-best ISO, and rank 26th in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Los Angeles ranks 19th in FIP, while Milwaukee ranks second.
Angels at Brewers pick, best bet
Peralta misses bats and the Angels strike out at the highest rate against righties. 1+1=2. In addition, the Brewers bullpen has been one of the best. Dana has talent and stuff, but control is an issue and he gives up hard contact and long balls.
