The Kansas City Chiefs haven’t gotten off to the hottest start in 2025, losing to the Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles to be among the NFL teams to fall to 0-2. The schedule won’t get any easier, either, with the Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions on the slate in the coming weeks.
The Chiefs aren’t the only NFL team to start 0-2 this year. The Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, New York Giants, Chicago Bears, Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints are all winless, as well. Those teams, however, were largely expected to be bottom-feeders in 2025.
Kansas City, on the other hand, hasn’t fallen short of the AFC Championship Game since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback in 2018. They are dead-last in the AFC West for the first time in a long time, two games behind the Chargers midway through September.
So with expectations still sky-high, here is what history has to say about the Chiefs’ outlook moving forward this season:
Can the Chiefs still make the playoffs?
Between 1966 to 2024, there were 451 teams in the Super Bowl era to open a season 0-2. Only 45 – or 10.0% – went on to make the playoffs. Since the playoffs expanded to 14 teams in 2020, five out of 41 teams to start 0-2 – or 12.2% – went on to clinch a playoff spot.
Kansas City last started 0-2 back in 2014, which was the last year the team missed the postseason. The franchise has started 0-2 a total of 16 times and has only spun that into a playoff berth once in 2006.
The stakes are high for the Chiefs’ showdown with the New York Giants on Sunday. Of the 258 teams to start a season 0-3 in the Super Bowl era, six have turned things around and made the playoffs. That is good for a mere 2.3% success rate. Kansas City has gone 0-for-8 in terms of making the playoffs when starting 0-3.
The 1992 San Diego Chargers are the only team ever to start 0-4 and still reach the playoffs. If the Chiefs lose to the Giants on Sunday, a loss to the Ravens the following week would make them the 168th team in the Super Bowl era to post a four-game losing streak to open a season.
Can Kansas City still win the AFC?
Since the Super Bowl era began in 1966, only four out of 118 conference champions started 0-2. Framed differently, only four out of 451 teams to start 0-2 went on to reach the Super Bowl.
Those numbers work against the Chiefs’ favor, even if they do sneak into the playoffs. Crudely using historical precedent as the only factor, Kansas City basically has a 10% chance of reaching the postseason. If they get there, the Chiefs will then have a 3.4% chance of winning the AFC. So effectively, Kansas City has a 0.9% chance of reaching the Super Bowl at this point.
No team has ever started 0-3 and proceeded to win their conference.
Can the Chiefs still win the Super Bowl?
The good news for Chiefs fans is that, should Kansas City reach Super Bowl LX, history would be on their side. Three of the four teams to start 0-2 and win a Conference Championship went on to win the Super Bowl two weeks later.
The 1993 Dallas Cowboys – the defending champions – established the club. The New England Patriots did so in 2001, the year Tom Brady stepped in for Drew Bledsoe, while the 2007 Giants started 0-2 before upsetting the undefeated Patriots in The Big Game that February. The only team to start 0-2, reach the Super Bowl and lose is the 1996 Patriots, who got blown out by Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers.
Of course, no team in NFL history has ever started 0-2 with Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones and Andy Reid in tow. That means these are technically uncharted waters, as that core group has proven time and time again that they are capable of making history. So even if the Chiefs’ nine-year streak of winning the AFC West is at risk, that likely won’t stop Mahomes & co. from finding some other way to succeed in 2025 and 2026.
