This is the opener of a three-game series in Detroit between the Tigers and visiting Cleveland Guardians.
Joey Cantillo is scheduled to pitch for Cleveland, while Casey Mize is scheduled to pitch for Detroit.
Guardians at Tigers prediction, preview
Joey Cantillo is a lefty averaging 91.6 mph on the fastball. The swinging strike rate is 12.3%, though, as the curveball and changeup have been his best pitches, posting positive run values of 2.8 and 3.4, respectively. The walk rate is high at 11.1% but the strikeout rate is 27%. He’s allowed eight home runs in 80.1 innings pitched. The barrel rate is only 6.6% but the hard hit rate is 42.2%.
Cantillo has reverse splits as lefties have been more productive off him. The K-BB% is only 11.9%, compared to 17.5% against righties, while the FIP is 1.23 higher against lefties. He has been better at home, as the K-BB% is 4.3% higher with the FIP slightly lower.
Cantillo has appeared in 31 games but made only 10 starts, all of which have come in his most recent outings. In those 10 starts, he’s allowed more than three earned runs twice and gone at least six innings twice. He faced Detroit back in May on the road out of the bullpen, going one inning, striking out one and allowing three hits without an earned run.
Against left-handed pitching, the Tigers rank 23rd in strikeout rate and fourth in ISO. Their wOBA ranks best in MLB.
Casey Mize is a righty averaging 94.8 mph on the fastball. The ERA is 3.83 while the FIP is slightly higher at 4.03. The swinging strike rate is 10.2% and the strikeout rate is 21.3%. The walk rate is 5.8% and he’s allowed 19 home runs in 131.2 innings. The average exit velocity is 89.9 mph, barrel rate is 9.2% and the hard hit rate is 42.6%. A solid season for Mize but nothing spectacular.
11 of the 19 home runs have come off the bat of righties. The K-BB% is 6.3% lower against righties while the FIP is 1.46 higher, primarily due to the home runs discrepancy. Mize has been better on the road, as the K-BB% is 4.2% higher and the FIP is lower.
In 25 starts, Mize has allowed more than three earned runs six times while going at least six innings 10 times. He has faced Cleveland twice this season. The first meeting was in May at home and Mize went five innings, walked one and struck out six while allowing one earned run on four hits. The second meeting was on the road in July and Mize went seven innings, walked two and struck out four without allowing an earned run on four hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Guardians have the 14th-highest strikeout rate, the 25th-best ISO, and rank 29th in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Cleveland ranks first in FIP, while Detroit ranks 26th.
Guardians at Tigers pick, best bet
I respect what Cantillo has done this season but the Tigers have been one of the best offenses against left-handed pitching. The main thing for me in this one, though, is that Cleveland has difficulty scoring runs.
