This is the opener of a three-game series in Los Angeles between the Dodgers and visiting Philadelphia Phillies.
Ranger Suarez is scheduled to pitch for Philadelphia, while Anthony Banda will open for Emmet Sheehan for Los Angeles.
Phillies at Dodgers prediction, preview
Ranger Suárez has been so, so good this season. Through 143 innings, his ERA is 2.77 while his FIP is 2.96. He’s allowed only 10 home runs while posting a 24% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate. He’s been a master at limiting hard contact, with an average exit velocity of 85.8 mph, a barrel rate of 5.5%, and a hard-hit rate of 30.3%.
Nine of the 10 home runs have come off the bats of righties. He’s truly been the devil to lefties, as his K-BB% is 26.5%, and opposing managers rarely send out lefties to face him. That number is 15.5% against righties. He’s been better at home, with a 2.71 FIP and a 4.6% higher K-BB%.
In 23 starts, Suárez has allowed more than three earned runs only four times. He’s gone at least six innings in 17 of those starts. In his last four starts, Suárez has allowed only one earned run. This will be his first time facing the Dodgers this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Dodgers rank 22nd in strikeout rate and second in ISO. Their wOBA ranks fourth in MLB.
Anthony Banda is a lefty who averages 96 mph on his fastball. His strikeout rate is 22.3%, while his walk rate is high at 12.6%. He will open and likely go only one inning.
Emmet Sheehan is a righty and has been very good in his second stint in the majors. In 2023, he pitched 60.1 innings and posted a 4.85 FIP. Unsurprisingly, control was an issue, with a 10.5% walk rate and 1.64 HR/9. Through 59.2 innings this season, his walk rate is down to 7.9%, and his HR/9 is 1.06. His strikeout rate has increased from 25.8% to 28.6%. His ERA is 3.32, while his FIP is 3.31. His swinging strike rate is a robust 15.3%, and his chase rate is 35.2%. He’s averaging 95.6 mph on the fastball. He does get hit hard, though, with an average exit velocity of 90.5 mph, a barrel rate of 11.1%, and a hard-hit rate of 43.8%.
Five of the seven home runs he has allowed have come on the road. Sheehan has been tough against righties, with a 24% K-BB%. Against lefties, that number drops to 14.9%, and his FIP is 4.27. At home, his K-BB% is 26.7% with a 2.08 FIP. On the road, those numbers are 14.9% and 4.65, respectively.
In 10 starts, Sheehan has allowed more than three earned runs three times, while going at least six innings three times. This will be his first time facing Philadelphia this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Phillies have the 27th-highest strikeout rate, the eighth-best ISO, and rank fourth in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Philadelphia ranks 10th in FIP, while Los Angeles ranks 13th.
Phillies at Dodgers pick, best bet
Both teams have great offenses and good bullpens—although Dodgers fans may want a piece of me for writing that. It’s no surprise that both are leading their respective divisions. I really do like both pitchers in this one, though.
