Major League Baseball has just two weeks left in the regular season, and the week starts with a juicy nine-game slate on Monday night. Some of the big series on the board are the Rangers-Astros matchup in Houston and the Phillies-Dodgers matchup in Los Angeles. Based on my preliminary research for game picks, here are my three favorite baseball bets for tonight’s slate, separate from our game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Blue Jays -1.5 at the Rays (+129)
The Blue Jays just swept the Orioles in Toronto and went 5-1 in their last six-game homestand to improve to 87-42 on the year. They have gone 8-3 in their last 11 but have actually lost five of six games to the Rays this season.
I think they’ll be looking to make a statement in their trip to Tampa to start the week, and they’ll start the series by sending top prospect Trey Yesavage to the hill for his MLB debut.
MLB Pipeline ranked Yesavage as the No. 25 prospect in baseball and the top prospect in the Blue Jays’ system.
Yesavage, 22, was selected 20th overall in last year’s draft by Toronto and climbed through four separate levels of the minors this season. Most recently, he posted a 3.63 ERA in 17 1/3 innings of work while striking out 36.1% of his opponents in Triple-A. He has outstanding strikeout stuff but sometimes struggles with control issues.
I like Yesavage to record 5+ strikeouts at -138, but taking the Jays to win by multiple runs brings even juicier odds. You can parlay them together for a nice +240 option if you want to really swing for the fences.
On the other side of the matchup, the Rays come in dragging a little bit, losing four of their last five and seven of their last nine. They’ll give the ball to Joe Boyle, who has gone 1-3 in his 10 games this season with a 5.40 ERA and 4.09 FIP.
Yesavage’s arrival should be exciting enough to help vault the Jays to a multi-run victory on Monday.
Byron Buxton 3+ Hits + Runs + RBI (+144)
Despite the Twins’ disappointing season, Buxton has been one of the bright spots on the team since he has been able to stay healthy and has been crushing the ball lately. He and the Twins host the Yankees this week, and he’ll start off hitting leadoff against lefty Carlos Rodon on Monday night in Minneapolis.
The Buck Truck has been rolling, and he has hit safely in 13 of his last 15 games. He had 17 hits, 12 runs scored and 14 RBIs over that stretch for a total of 43 HRR (hits + runs + RBI), averaging 2.9 HRR per contest.
Buxton has hit .307 against lefties this year and .273 at home, putting him on the strong side of both his splits against Rodon on Monday. He’s gone 4-for-16 (.250) in this specific matchup with a pair of doubles and a pair of walks.
Rodon has been solid for the Yankees this season, but he still can have a very good start even if Buxton finds his way to at least three HRR. One of the reason I like playing three HRR or more props is that in any at-bat, three HRR are possible with a home run. There are many paths to success, though, and with how locked-in Buxton has been, I think he’ll find one of those paths this Monday night.
Jack Leiter over 15.5 outs recorded (+127)
The Rangers and Astros face off on Monday night, with the Astros starting the series two games ahead of the Rangers and one game behind the Mariners. The Mariners are in Kansas City to face the Royals on Tuesday, as the AL West race comes down to the wire. It looks like whoever finishes second in the division has a good shot at a Wild Card spot, but the Rangers can definitely tighten the race by knocking off the Astros early this week.
They’ll send rookie Jack Leiter to the mound to open the series, and I love getting the over on his outs recorded line at plus-money. Leiter has gone at least 5 1/3 innings (over this line) in three of his last four outings and in each of his last two road starts.
He faced the Astros twice this year and went over this outs recorded line in both matchups, allowing three runs in each outing, including the start he made in Houston on July 11, where he also earned a win.
He’s 9-8 in his 26 starts this year with a 3.81 ERA and 4.10 FIP. He’s coming off a little bit of a shorter outing against the Brewers in his most recent game, so he should be fresh and ready to go Monday night in Houston.
The Rangers will be aggressive, so they have to keep him on a short leash, but I think Leiter will step up to the challenge and work at least into the sixth inning, pushing him past this outs recorded line.
