With the MLB regular season winding down, the postseason race gets all the more interesting. An AL West series over the next three days carries incredibly high stakes as the Houston Astros (81-69) duel the Texas Rangers (79-71). With the top of the division tightly contested, these next three games could prove crucial in determining postseason seeding and a potential Wild Card berth for one of the sides.
Get ready for game one of this set with a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday night.
Astros vs. Rangers prediction, preview
After the Seattle Mariners took a one-game lead in the AL West, both the Astros and Rangers find themselves in the Wild Card race. Houston sits in the third and final spot with just one game separating it from the Boston Red Sox for the second Wild Card berth, while the Rangers remain just outside the playoff picture at two games shy of the Astros. It’s easy to see how much of an impact tonight’s outcome (and the next two days’ as well) could have on the postseason seeding.
These teams bring distinctly different form into Monday’s action. The Astros are just 4-6 across their last 10 contests, including a series in which they lost two of three games to the Rangers last week. Houston’s offense remains inconsistent from night to night, but the team is scoring 4.84 runs per game in September with a respectable .255 average and .725 OPS. The Astros’ 15 home runs also fall in the middle of the pack, but they’re 20th in ISO at .150 and are somewhat strikeout-happy with a 23.5% strikeout percentage and low 0.33 BB/K. The team still finds itself dealing with some injuries on the pitching staff, but a 4.18 ERA falls 15th while a 1.20 WHIP ranks seventh.
Meanwhile, the Rangers have hit their stride at 7-3 across their last 10 contests. That span includes series wins over the New York Mets, Milwaukee Brewers, and the Astros of course. They’ve done so on the backs of the pitching staff’s 3.27 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this month, third and fifth-best in baseball. The bats aren’t playing particularly well with just 3.92 runs per contest as well as a paltry .224 average and .652 average, both marks which fall in the bottom 10 around the MLB. The Rangers have just nine homers in September, third-fewest, but they’ve posted a quality walk rate of 9.7% with the sixth-best BB/K at 0.46.
Astros vs. Rangers pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Astros are -132 home favorites on the Moneyline tonight while the Rangers come in with slight plus-value at +108. The run total sits at 8.5 for this matchup.
The matchup on the mound doesn’t inspire worlds of confidence for either side. Houston starts Jason Alexander (4.19 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 55 SO in 66.2 IP) against Texas’ Jack Leiter (3.81 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 130 SO). Each pitcher posts some respectable numbers overall, but one can assume both are outperforming their underlying advanced metrics to an extent as neither have an xERA better than 4.57. Alexander does tend to pitch to ground balls, while Leiter brings 88th-percentile fastball velocity while allowing plenty of hard hits.
Leiter may see some success striking batters out tonight, but he allowed three earned runs in each of his past outings against the Astros this season. His susceptibility to hard-hit balls is something Houston may take advantage of, especially with Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker in the lineup. With an offense that’s simply playing better ball than their opponent right now, the Stros could put up some runs early and try to hang on for the remainder of the night against a strong Rangers bullpen. With that in mind, I like over 2.5 runs for the home team in the first five innings at plus odds.
Best bet: HOU Astros over 2.5 runs in first five innings (+120)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
