Week 3 of the college football season is now in the books, with the season’s outlook beginning to fall into place. There have already been plenty of surprises and changes in DraftKings Sportsbook’s futures markets as a result. This article will look at the updated Heisman Odds, biggest takeaways, and a best bets following the Week 3 slate.
Post-Week 3 Heisman Odds Movement:
John Mateer Remains the Favorite
The Oklahoma Sooners had no trouble taking down a stingy 2-0 Temple squad and won 42-3 on Saturday. John Mateer completed 20 of his 34 pass attempts for 282 yards, one touchdown, and one interception while adding 63 rushing yards and a touchdown with his legs. He entered the week as the favorite to win the Heisman with +800 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook and holds the same outlook following his big outing. This was far from his defining Heisman moment, but Mateer remains on his desired pathway as the favorite and will prepare for a matchup with No. 22 Auburn this weekend, as well as future matchups with Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, and LSU as the final seven games to fully decide things.
Garrett Nussmeier Slides
Entering the week, Garrett Nussmeier was the next-closest favorite in the DraftKings Sportsbook Heisman odds at +850. LSU defeated Florida 20-10 in Week 3, but had to play from behind at the start and were dominated in time of possession 37:46 to 22:14. LSU picked up just 10 first downs in the game. Nussmeier completed 15 of his 27 pass attempts for 220 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. This was not a performance that will crack Nussmeier’s most impressive outings, but the odds shift to fourth at +1300 was more significant than I would have expected. LSU still has five more ranked matchups in which Nussmeier can shake this off and return to being the Heisman favorite again.
Carson Beck’s Momentum is Real
Plenty of eyes were on the matchup between Miami and South Florida this week after the Bulls picked up ranked victories over Boise State and Florida in their first two games. The Hurricanes had no trouble from start to finish and produced a dominant 49-12 victory in which they did not trail. Carson Beck completed 23 of his 28 pass attempts for 340 yards and three touchdowns through the air. He also added 28 rushing yards and a touchdown with his legs, but did toss a pair of interceptions. Miami is set to face Florida and Florida State in its next two games, but it has a lighter schedule down the stretch than most of the other Heisman candidates. It feels Beck was cast to the side a bit too quickly in college football conversations following his time at Georgia, and he is making his presence known once again on the national stage.
Arch Manning Keeps Sliding
Arch Manning entered the season as the odds-on Heisman favorite and one of the most highly anticipated players in recent college football history. Now three games in, it feels like the cart got put before the horse to an extent. Texas defeated UTEP this week 27-10, but Manning has yet to look the part of one of the better quarterbacks in college football. He completed just 11 of his 25 pass attempts for 114 yards, one touchdown and an interception while also adding 51 rushing yards and two scores with his legs. On the season overall, he is posting a 55.3% completion percentage with 579 passing yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions. The 112 rushing yards and three rushing scores are worth mentioning, but he has not looked to have the required arm talent for the Heisman conversation to this point. After opening the season at +650 odds to win the Heisman, he slipped to +1400 following the opening week loss to Ohio State. Manning’s odds stayed at +1400 entering this week, but have dropped to +3500 following Week 3. Unless some significant changes occur moving forward, it is tough to argue that he has played at the level of a top quarterback in college football.
LaNorris Sellers Picks Up Injury
There was some significant Heisman buzz leading into the year surrounding South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers. His outlook for competing for the prestigious award shifted greatly this week after he suffered a concussion against Vanderbilt. Sellers exited the game in the second quarter after completing six of his seven pass attempts for 94 yards and an interception. His status will be something to monitor as the week progresses, but missed time is difficult to overcome. This is especially the case with a matchup against Missouri this week. Sellers held the seventh-best Heisman odds entering the week at +1600 but has dropped to +3500 following the injury. Keep an eye on his status as the week continues.
Welcome to the Party, Joey Aguilar
On the positive side of the odds movement, Joey Aguilar has played himself into the Heisman conversation. It feels like no one, not even the Tennessee faithful, was fully sure what they were expecting from Aguilar this season. But the Volunteers may have accidentally walked themselves into a quarterback upgrade following the offseason Nico Iamaleava NIL saga. While Tennessee fell short 44-41 to Georgia in one of the best games of the season thus far, this was a respectable loss and it’s tough to stick any of it to Aguilar. He completed 24 of his 36 pass attempts for 371 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions while adding a touchdown with his legs. You can critique the interceptions, but Aguilar put the team in position for a game-winning field goal at the end of regulation and looked the part of a big-time college football quarterback in his most difficult test yet. Tennessee still has three ranked matchups and some other notable games, but Aguilar has put himself on the Heisman map. Entering this week, he held +4500 odds of winning the award and has now leaped to ninth in Heisman odds at +1600.
Best Bet: Thomas Castellanos (+2800)
Florida State was off in Week 3 and Thomas Castellanos saw his Heisman odds slip from +2500 to +2800. I do not think we will see this type of value for the rest of the season and believe it is worth grabbing a ticket now.
Castellanos put himself on the map during his time at Boston College, which included an upset over the same Florida State team that he hopped into the portal to join in the offseason. Castellanos called his shot in the offseason about beating Alabama, with his quotes creating plenty of headlines leading up to the opening matchup. Florida State beat Alabama 31-17 as Castellanos completed nine of his 14 pass attempts for 152 yards while adding 78 rushing yards and a touchdown with his legs. There were not as many eyes on the 77-3 victory over East Texas A&M, but the Seminoles’ starter threw for 237 yards and three touchdowns in the win.
Florida State will face Kent State this week before some more notable matchups against teams like Miami, Florida, and Clemson down the stretch. Castellanos is a dual-threat quarterback who is not afraid of the big stage. If he looks the part in these matchups and can put up some convincing stat lines in the cupcake games, he will be in the mix for the Heisman Trophy. Players like Manning, Cade Klubnik, and Sellers stumbling down the odds table only increased my optimism. This matchup with Kent State will not be the one that catapults Castellanos into contention for the award, but getting the +2800 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook is a ticket worth keeping in the pocket.
Bonus Bet: Garrett Nussmeier (+1300)
When sorting through the best values in the Heisman market, it is impossible for the +1300 odds for Garrett Nussmeier not to catch your attention. Nussmeier entered the season with +850 odds of winning the trophy and climbed to the +700 co-favorite after the opening week of action. He held +850 odds entering last week, but has now dropped to +1300 following the victory over Florida.
The fifth-year quarterback did not impress this week, but he has plenty of time to wipe this performance away and lots of high-profile games still to come. The bottom line should still be viewed as positive since LSU is 3-0 with victories over Clemson, Louisiana Tech and Florida. Nussmeier has thrown for 689 passing yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions to this point. Sure, these are not quite Heisman-caliber stats. But with matchups against Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Alabama, and Oklahoma still to come, this will be quickly forgotten. There also seems to be too much of a reaction to Florida’s 0-2 start and not enough credit given for LSU’s victory over the SEC foe. Brian Kelly made his frustrations with this known in his press conference.
As long as LSU continues to win, Nussmeier will remain in the Heisman race. The Tigers hold the sixth-best odds to win the National Championship at +900 on DraftKings Sportsbook. It is fair to be a bit concerned with Nussmeier’s level of play, but if you believe in riding the Nuss Bus to the Heisman Award ceremony, there is no better time to get on than now.
