Major League Baseball closes out an awesome weekend of rivalries and playoff races with five games starting at 4:00 p.m. or later. The Sunday Night Baseball matchup between the Red Sox and Yankees is the capstone on the weekend, but there are four solid games in the wave right before that as well. Let’s look at this handful of matchups and go shopping for some home run props this Sunday. After looking at the matchups, game environments, odds and current form of the players available, my favorite home run props for Sunday come from Fernando Tatis Jr., Sal Stewart and Jarren Duran.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and aim for the fences with these home run props—all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the top home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators that can point us in the right direction, home run props are always volatile plays.
As a result, home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props go green on a given night. It also helps to get 34% extra juice from Big Papi!
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props on Sunday.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Fernando Tatis Jr. to record 1+ home runs (+297)
Tatis and the Padres are some of the top home run props on the board this afternoon since they’re in a great matchup against German Marquez and the Rockies at home.
Marquez has been brutal this season, going 3-13 with a 6.31 ERA, 5.11 FIP and 18 home runs allowed in his 23 outings. He has allowed at least one home run in eight straight games, giving up a total of 11 homers and 35 runs in 39 innings over that span. Opponents have a 52.9% hard-hit rate against him with a 15.9% barrel rate. He has struggled both at home and on the road, so his struggles aren’t all Coors Field-related.
Tatis is up to 22 homers after going yard four times in his last 10 games, including this blast from Saturday night:
He only had three homers in his previous 59 games, so he definitely seems to have found his power stroke lately. Tatis has hit 18 of his 22 homers against righties like Marquez and 15 of his 22 homers at home at Petco Park, where he has a .368 wOBA on the year.
Tatis has the shortest odds of the home run props on the board in this game, but he still seems like a good value based on the matchup since Marquez has been so smashable.
Sal Stewart to record 1+ home runs (+432)
The Reds are still in the NL Wild Card race just 1.5 games behind the Mets, but they’ve lost the first two games of their series against the Athletics.
One of the most exciting parts of the Reds’ offense right now is youngster Sal Stewart, who MLB Pipeline ranked as the top prospect in the Reds’ system and the No. 30 prospect in baseball. The 21-year-old hit .309 with 20 homers, 17 stolen bases, 80 RBIs and a .413 wOBA in his 118 games in Double-A and Triple-A before getting the call when rosters expanded.
In his nine games, he is 7-for-28 (.250) after picking up three hits on Saturday. He already has a pair of homers in the majors with a 45% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 93.8 miles per hour.
The youngster is hitting cleanup on Sunday against fellow rookie Luis Morales, who has a 2.73 ERA and 3.87 FIP in his seven games. He has given up four homers in his last four games, though, and all four of those were hit by righties like Stewart.
Stewart is one of the most exciting young names to watch over the last two weeks of the season, and I love that the odds for his home run props are this long on Sunday afternoon.
Jarren Duran to record 1+ home runs (+670)
The odds on Duran’s home run props are extremely high on Sunday Night Baseball, but getting him at over 6:1 is a great value at home against the Yankees.
Duran came off the bench with a big home run on Saturday, but the Red Sox couldn’t rally, losing their second in a row to the Yankees.
Duran has 15 homers this year after hitting 21 homers in his breakout campaign last year. The lefty has thrived at Fenway, hitting .288 at home with nine of his 15 dingers and a .379 wOBA.
Throughout the season, Duran has been streaky, and lately, he has three homers in 17 games with a 48.8% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 92.5 miles per hour.
He’ll face Will Warren in the series finale, who has been solid at 8-6 with a 4.22 ERA and 3.91 FIP on the year. He has allowed six homers in his last six starts, though, and on the season, lefties like Duran have 12 of the 18 homers against him with a .264 batting average and .343 wOBA. Even though Warren plays his home games at Yankee Stadium, he has a 5.43 road ERA with a .347 wOBA against him.
Duran is 1-for-5 with a triple against Warren in the past, and I love the splits that indicate it’s a good night to swing for the fences with Duran on Sunday.
