There are many similarities between the Minnesota Vikings and Atlanta Falcons. Both teams play in a dome. Both are starting quarterbacks they drafted in 2024 — Minnesota has J.J. McCarthy, selected with the 10th overall pick, while Michael Penix Jr., taken eighth overall, is under center for Atlanta. Both teams boast strong offensive lines geared toward pass protection.
This is where things begin to diverge.
Atlanta threw the ball on 60.56% of its plays in Week 1, while Minnesota was down at 46.94%. Both teams were trailing heading into the fourth quarter, yet McCarthy was able to lead his team to victory, while Atlanta fell to 0-1.
The discrepancies on defense are massive. Minnesota posted the 11th-lowest EPA per dropback; Atlanta had the 11th-highest. Atlanta recorded the second-lowest pressure and hurry rates, while Minnesota ranked third and second, respectively.
This game is in Minnesota, with the Vikings favored by 3.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook and the total set at 44.5.
Below are the possible values that could help take you to the Promised Land.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.11M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st, (ATL @ MIN)
WR Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings ($4,800)
Thielen only played 57% of the snaps and garnered one target in Week 1. Gross. The Vikings only threw 20 times, though, and it took a while for McCarthy to get comfortable in a hostile environment. When he did, really good things happened.
This matchup is at home, and I think McCarthy not only plays well, but the game plan could tilt a bit more toward the pass because Atlanta still has issues generating pressure. In Week 1, Thielen did haul in a two-point conversion. He was lined up outside, faked that he was going to sprint across the field, then cut back toward the sideline for the easy pitch and catch.
RB Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons ($3,000)
I don’t like this play in a vacuum because Bijan Robinson dominates the snaps and targets at the running back position for Atlanta. That said, Allgeier is cheap and played 25% of the snaps. He did receive two red zone opportunities.
I do think Atlanta has to tilt more toward the air in this one, which dulls the luster of any Allgeier bling — but what if he does punch one in from the goal line? Or, heaven forbid, what if Robinson gets injured?
TE Kyle Pitts Sr., Atlanta Falcons ($5,800)
Pitts was second on the team with eight targets in Week 1. With the amount of pressure Minnesota can generate, quick hitters to Pitts could be dialed up early and often. He played 78% of the snaps at tight end, and only Charlie Woerner received a target (1) at the position.
