We get two games on Monday Night. Oh, what a sight. My heartbeat is beating faster and faster, taking my emotions to a height that would cause Orville and Wilbur tremendous delight. The lights will be bright but will the offenses ignite? More than a few players may be uptight. Naw, these are professionals. They all gonna be aiight.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Houston is favored at home by 2.5 over Tampa Bay. The total is 42.5. Los Angeles is favored on the road by three over Las Vegas. The total is 46.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Special [$500K to 1st] (Mon).
Quarterback
Stud
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans ($6,500) – Houston did a good job limiting Kyren Williams to 3.7 yards per carry while Matthew Stafford completed 21-of-29 passes for 245 yards. The Tampa Bay rushing attack was “led” by Bucky Irving, who rushed for 2.6 yards per carry. The path of least resistance looks to be through the air for Tampa Bay. To help matters, Houston had the seventh-lowest hurry and pressure rates in Week 1. I think Houston puts up some points, which would keep Tampa Bay aggressive.
Value
C. J. Stroud, Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,500) – I may have both games wrong, as the total is only 42.5 for this one and 46.5 for the other, but I think this game is more of an aerial, back-and-forth affair while the Chargers/Raiders is more of a slugfest with the Chargers controlling the game. We shall see. Anyways, the Buccaneers were also excellent in rush defense in Week 1, limiting Bijan Robinson to 2.0 yards per carry. The pass defense was the complete opposite, allowing the third-highest EPA per dropback in Week 1.
Running Back
Stud
Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders ($5,800) – Hampton rushed 15 times for 48 yards and caught two targets for 13 yards in Week 1. He did play 80% of the snaps and I think it will take time for Najee Harris to get back up to speed, if he does at all. I think the Chargers tilted more toward the air last week and were more aggressive because Patrick Mahomes was on the other side. The Raiders offense isn’t as potent, so I think Los Angeles goes back to what it wants to do, which is ground-and-pound. Last season, the Chargers were 23rd in pass rate at 55.09%. I like Hampton to remind everyone why he was drafted in the first round of the draft.
Value
Dare Ogunbowale, Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,000) – Nick Chubb is going to be the one to pound between the tackles, and he played 51% of the snaps while Ogunbowale was at 27%. But Chubb will not be catching many passes, which is Ogunbowale’s role. He hauled in two targets for 17 yards in Week 1. I think Ogunbowale is utilized more in this one. As mentioned in the quarterback sections, both defenses have been stout against the run and I think both offenses will tilt more toward the air. Last season, Tampa Bay allowed the fifth-most receptions to running backs. In Week 1, it allowed the seventh-most receptions.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans ($6,800) – Evans led the teams with eight targets in Week 1, but finished with only five receptions for 51 yards. Emeka Egbuka was the one who had the big game with two touchdowns on four receptions. I like Evans to have the big game this time. In Week 1, the Houston pass defense allowed the sixth-most air yards on completions. Evans is a deep pass savant and when he has big games, he usually has monster games. In addition, the ownership could be muted because Egbuka is priced $1,000 cheaper while Ladd McConkey is only $100 more expensive and Nico Collins is $500 higher.
Value
Xavier Hutchinson/Justin Watson, Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,200/$3,100) – I’m grouping Hutchinson and Watson together because they are similar. Hutchinson played 68% of the snaps in Week 1 while Watson was at 56%. Both garnered two targets. The differences are that Hutchinson is $100 more expensive while Watson mostly operates out of the slot. I think Houston tilts toward the air in this one, which would increase the probabilities for all the Texans pass catchers to produce some fantasy goodies.
Tight End
Stud
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers ($6,300) – Bowers inexplicably only played 51% of the snaps in Week 1, but he still garnered the second-most targets at eight, finishing with five receptions for 103 yards. Bowers is a stud and is near the top of the offensive totem pole in Las Vegas. He does have a questionable tag due to a knee injury he suffered in Week 1, but Pete Carroll expects him to play.
Value
Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers ($3,300) – Mayer out-snapped Bowers, 63% to 51%. Shrug. Mayer is not in the same tier as Bowers, but he was a second-round pick in the 2023 draft, so he’s not a scrub. In Week 1, Mayer garnered four targets and a red zone opportunity. He has stand alone value, but that would rocket higher if Bowers is unable to play or re-injures himself during the game.
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Los Angeles Chargers DST at Las Vegas Raiders ($3,200) – Las Vegas struggled to run the ball in Week 1, as Ashton Jeanty averaged 2.0 yards per carry. Jeanty is a stud but the offensive line isn’t opening up holes for him. I am correlating this recommendation with the Hampton selection at running back, as he would likely only have a big game if the Chargers defense stymies the Raiders defense, which I think can happen especially if the Raiders become one-dimensional. Then sacks, interceptions and pick-sixes can happen!
Value
Houston Texans DST vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,000) – The Texans are at home, so that home cooking may provide a boost. Compared to the Tampa Bay defense, Houston has a higher pressure rate, more quarterback knockdowns and held a potent Rams passing attack to 14 points. Granted, Matthew Stafford completed a high percentage of his passes and threw for a lot of yards, but this is more about there being limited options and the other defenses are not as appealing.
