The Tampa Bay Buccaneers went into Atlanta and procured the 23-20 win in Week 1 even though they lost the time of possession battle by over 10 minutes and ran 15 fewer plays. Despite throwing for only 167 yards, Baker Mayfield threw three touchdowns and posted the ninth-best EPA per dropback.
On defense, the rush defense was stout, limiting Atlanta to 2.5 yards per carry and finishing with the seventh-best EPA per carry. The pass defense. Oh, that pass defense. Porous with a capital P, and not just because it was the first word of the sentence. The unit allowed the third-highest EPA per dropback with a paltry 2.2% sack rate.
The Houston Texans also started this season on the road but could only muster three field goals in a 14-9 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. The rushing attack was decent, with 4.2 yards per carry and a total of 114 yards, but 11 penalties for 80 yards and two turnovers did them in. The passing offense wasn’t good, posting the sixth-lowest EPA per dropback, 8.8% sack rate and a 41.2% pressure rate.
The rush defense was excellent for Houston, limiting the Rams to 2.9 yards per carry, good for the ninth-best EPA per carry. The pass defense wasn’t great, though, allowing Matthew Stafford to complete 72.4% of his passes for 245 yards and a touchdown. But the Rams were only able to muster 14 points on the day.
In Week 1, Tampa Bay ranked 17th in pass rate at 58.93% while Houston was 23rd at 52.63%. Tampa Bay is fairly stout against the run and susceptible against the forward pass, so the path of least resistance will be through the air for Houston. Can the protection hold up, though? The same dynamic could be in play for the Tampa Bay offense, as Houston shut down the Rams’ rushing attack.
DraftKings Sportsbook has HOU -2.5 over TB with the total at 42.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $300K Showdown Special [$100K to 1st] (TB @ HOU)
Captain’s Picks
C. J. Stroud ($14,100 CP): Stroud went 19-of-27 for 188 yards in Week 1. He’s been pretty underwhelming since his stellar rookie season, with the offensive line…or lack of…being a culprit. It’s not been entirely the line’s fault, as quarterbacks share some of the onus for pressure, but they haven’t helped. In Week 1, the pressure rate was 41.2%, the fifth-highest mark. The Buccaneers’ defense had the seventh-lowest pressure and hurry rates in Week 1. Despite the low total of 42.5, I think there’s a chance some points are scored in this one, which would have both offenses being aggressive. In addition, both defenses were stout against the run so the path of least resistance for both teams could be through the air.
UTIL Plays
Dare Ogunbowale ($1,400): Ogunbowale only played 27% of the snaps in Week 1 and had two targets. Houston was able to pound Nick Chubb because the defense held up and the game never got away from them. As mentioned in the Stroud section, I think this game could tilt towards the air and have more aggression from both sides. Last season, Tampa Bay allowed the fifth-most receptions to running backs. In Week 1, the six receptions to running backs were the seventh-most.
Baker Mayfield ($10,600): Mayfield only completed 53.1 percent of his passes in Week 1, but threw three touchdowns. The Houston pass defense allowed Matthew Stafford to complete 72.4% of his passes in Week 1. The 177 air yards on completions were the sixth-most. I like the Mayfield to Mike Evans connection in this one.
Justin Watson ($1,000): Watson played the third-most snaps at wide receiver for the Texans in Week 1. He garnered two targets and caught both for 27 yards. He’s cheap, is on the field a decent amount and ties into my story of Stroud throwing a lot in this one and having success.
Fades
Emeka Egbuka ($9,800): I hate this fade because I think Egbuka is really good and Mayfield is going to be throwing the ball in this one. That said, the ownership will likely be elevated due to Egbuka’s Week 1 performance and I think this is an Evans game.
THE OUTCOME
In a vacuum, I think the Buccaneers are a slightly better team, but this is the home opener for Houston on Monday night.
Final Score: Buccaneers 24, Texans 27
