Purdue is hosting USC on the Saturday afternoon of Week 3. The game will take place at 3:30 P.M. ET in West Lafayette, Indiana. The Boilermakers and the Trojans both begin their Big Ten campaigns in this conference matchup.
The Trojans are 20.5-point home favorites in this game on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 59.5 points. This is a preview, prediction and pick for this USC-Purdue Big Ten matchup.
USC vs. Purdue Preview
USC Preview
The USC Trojans have been one of the best teams in the country through two weeks of this college football season. Despite being one of the premier programs in college football over the past half-century, USC has yet to make a College Football Playoff. USC made the big hire of Lincoln Riley in 2021 and had a Heisman Trophy winner in Caleb Williams, but it has yet to receive a bid. Last season was USC’s first year in the Big Ten, and while the move should benefit the program in the long term, it didn’t in 2024. The Trojans struggled in conference play, going 4-5 against Big Ten competition. However, this season looks like a different USC team. Jordan Maiava transferred in from UNLV at quarterback and appears to be the real deal. Maiava ranks third in the nation in passing yards per game and has run Lincoln Riley’s offense to perfection. These games are the ones that USC needs to dominate in Big Ten play if it wants to go to the level of Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon.
Purdue Preview
It has been a rough run for Purdue over the past two years. Jeff Brohm had brought his program to national relevance between 2017 and 2022, making a bowl game in four out of six years and even reaching a Big Ten Championship Game. Once Brohm left for Louisville, the wheels fell off in West Lafayette. Ryan Walters’ team went 4-8 in 2023, then things hit rock bottom in 2024, going 1-11 with a winless conference record. This year’s Purdue team has certainly shown signs of improvement, though. Quarterback Ryan Browne has played well, and Devin Mockobee is a weapon in the ground game. Purdue has already eclipsed its win total from last season, albeit against weak competition. The easy games on their schedule are over, so if Purdue wants to move in the right direction, it needs to be more competitive in conference play this season.
USC vs. Purdue Pick
My best bet for this game is for USC to cover the 20.5-point spread. Measuring by net EPA/play, USC has been the best team in college football this season. It also ranks second in offensive EPA/play and 16th in defensive EPA/play. The Trojans sit second in offensive EPA/pass and third in offensive EPA/rush, so they can beat teams through the air or on the ground. Purdue’s defense has not faced a real offense yet this season, but now it has to play one of the best offenses in college football. USC should punch Purdue in the mouth early with explosive plays and never look back. Lincoln Riley needs to be a serious contender in the Big Ten this season, and a blowout win over Purdue would set the right tone for the rest of the season.
