The Week 3 college football slate is upon us and it’s a real doozy. There are exciting matchups up and down the schedule, but the action in Lubbock, Texas should provide a fun contest between the No. 21 Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-0) and Oregon State Beavers (0-2). For the third straight week, this nationally ranked program hosts a beatable opponent at Jones AT&T Stadium, but this one should provide the toughest challenge yet for the Red Raiders.
Let’s dive into the details with a Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Oregon State Beavers prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texas Tech vs. Oregon State prediction, preview
Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Red Raiders finds themselves ranked No. 21 in this week’s AP Poll, and were it not for the caliber of opponents the program’s faced thus far, that ranking would likely rise higher. Texas Tech demolished Arkansas-Pine Bluff of the FCS 67-7 in Week 1, then steamrolled MAC bottom-dweller Kent State 62-14 last Saturday in another blowout. The stats through the opening two contests are absurd — the team’s scored 64.5 points with 604.5 yards of offense per game. Now, that kind of production doesn’t feel likely to continue against a more respectable FBS opponent, but it’s easy to see the vision for Joey McGuire’s program.
The improved talent brought in via the transfer portal has made an immense difference to start the season, particularly in the trenches as the Red Raiders offensive line hasn’t allowed a sack yet and has helped the run game generate for 262 yards per game despite top running back Quinten Joyner missing the season with a major knee injury. Conversely, the defensive line has generated five sacks while limiting opponents to just 58 rushing yards per contest. Yes, the quality of competition has been low, but this utter dominance is what one expects from top FBS programs when they play lower-level opponents.
Texas Tech looks the part thus far, as does the connection between quarterback Behren Morton (459 yards, 73.9 completion percentage, seven touchdowns with zero interceptions) and top wideouts Reggie Virgil (nine receptions, 106 yards, three touchdowns) and Coy Eakin (six receptions, 106 yards, two touchdowns). Sophomore Cameron Dickey may get the starting nod at halfback, but third-stringer Adam Hill paces the team with 23 carries for 205 yards as well. The offense boasts depth, and if they play half as well against Oregon State as in past weeks, the Red Raiders can cruise to another victory.
Oregon State Beavers
The contrast between Texas Tech and Oregon State’s respective starts to the season provides quite the dichotomy. The Beavers enter Week 3 with an 0-2 record thus far after dropping their opening contest to California 34-15 and falling to Fresno State 36-27 last week. The Cal loss feels excusable given the pedigree of each program and the fact Oregon State managed a respectable day of 313 yards and picked up more first downs than their superior opponents, they just needed to sharpen up some. However, there are no words to describe last week’s outcome after the Beavers outgained the Bulldogs 528-318, threw for 388 yards, picked up 30 first downs while converting 10-of-17 third-down attempts, and punted just twice as they dominated the time of possession 37:25 to 22:34.
After an embarrassing loss, Oregon State must respond in a big way. Unfortunately, they’re running into a buzzsaw for vulnerable defenses, which the Beavers probably have after surrendering 197 rushing yards and 6.9 yards per play to Fresno State. Limiting chunk gains for Texas Tech should be the name of the game, though Oregon State’s own offense doesn’t look too shabby. They’ve picked up 420.5 yards per game with 318 through the air, and 7.7 yards per pass attempt are nothing to scoff at. Quarterback Maalik Murphy’s completed 64.2% of his throws for 615 yards and four touchdowns, but he’s also thrown three interceptions with three sacks. The rest of the talent seems top-heavy with Anthony Hankerson’s 178 yards and a score on 40 carries, but no other back above eight carries or 30 yards. Receivers Trent Walker and Taz Reddicks have 16 receptions for 235 yards and 12 catches for 174 yards, but neither has hauled in a touchdown and no teammate has exceeded five catches or 48 yards.
It’s not necessarily a bad thing to deploy a consolidated approach on offense, but it’s something which could ultimately doom Oregon State as this week’s opponent sees better talent, particularly on the defensive side of things. It’s a very difficult matchup to face going into Week 3 without a win, and the odds are very long for the Beavers to pick up their first dub on the road in a hostile environment.
Texas Tech vs. Oregon State pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Texas Tech as a 23.5-point favorite at home on Saturday with -2400 odds on the Moneyline. Oregon State enters with +1200 odds to win outright with the game total set at 61.5 combined points.
Before writing this matchup off as a surefire blowout, there’s a world in which this actually plays out in somewhat close fashion. The scenario revolves around the Red Raiders scoring plenty, but the Beavers do have some appealing pieces to move the ball better than either of the teams who’ve come to the Jones thus far and actually hanging in there on the scoreboard. However, that’s probably an unlikely outcome due to the explosiveness of the Texas Tech offense combined with the mismatch in the trenches in this contest.
While this game could — and very well may — provide the toughest test for Texas Tech yet, these squads still aren’t particularly close. The Red Raiders see an advantage on both offensive and defensive line, and while the Beavers have struggled running the ball with just 3.4 yards per carry through their first two games, Murphy likely finds himself running for his life on Saturday as well. The run defense and pass rush are both quite formidable, and without a ground game to set up the pass or time to throw in the pocket, things could get very ugly for Oregon State’s offense here. They’ll have to pray for a shootout to keep this one competitive as the tortillas fly out in Lubbock.
After covering a couple of ridiculous spreads to open the season, including a 48.5-point mark last week, Texas Tech can certainly make it happen once more with a line half as lofty at -23.5. Expect the Red Raiders to move up in the next AP ballot after another strong showing in Week 3.
