Texas State is on the rise, having gone from Sun Belt cellar-dwellers to bowl-bound program within the past five years. The Bobcats have reeled off two straight wins this season, but Saturday’s game presents a different kind of challenge. Arizona State suffered a tough loss to Mississippi State last week. Still, ASU remains the reigning Big 12 champions. Can the Sun Devils turn it around tonight? Below is my prediction and pick for College Football Week 3’s game between the Texas State Bobcats and the Arizona State Sun Devils.
Arizona State enters this contest as 17.5-point favorites over Texas State, with the over/under set at 60.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texas State vs. Arizona State prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, Texas State comes into this weekend with some momentum. Granted, the team has yet to play a high-end opponent; games against Eastern Michigan and UTSA won’t move the needle. Regardless, the Bobcats have proven their worth in recent seasons, taking down quality programs such as Baylor and North Texas.
Head coach G.J. Kinne’s squad is all about putting up points. Quarterback Brad Jackson has been terrific, throwing for 500 yards and five touchdowns to just one interception. The gunslinger has undeniable chemistry with star wideout Beau Sparks; he’s hauled in all five of Jackson’s touchdown passes. No Texas State pass catcher other than Chris Dawn Jr. has recorded more than 33 receiving yards. On the ground, four different Bobcats have gained at least 79 rushing yards. Unsurprisingly, the team is averaging 47.5 points through two games, 17th-best in college football.
Arizona State retains a strong roster, albeit one without standout running back Cam Skattebo. Therefore, the Sun Devils are relying more on quarterback Sam Leavitt this season. That’s had mixed results so far; the sophomore has already thrown three interceptions. In the backfield, head coach Kenny Dillingham has adopted a committee approach. Raleek Brown (148 yards, 1 TD) and Kanye Udoh (124 yards, 1 TD) could serve as a bell cow at other schools. Together, the duo form one of the nation’s most dynamic one-two punches. On the outside, Jordyn Tyson has snagged 18 catches, 209 receiving yards and three touchdowns. The potential first round pick is a matchup nightmare for most teams, let alone a shaky Bobcats secondary.
The key for Texas State will be slowing down Tyson. As seen against Mississippi State, Leavitt can struggle when his first read is heavily covered. It’s no surprise that only two Sun Devils have recorded more than 23 receiving yards. That’s easier said than done, especially for this defense. The Bobcats have surrendered an average of 31.5 points and 427.5 yards per game to their opponents so far. Another cause for concern? Texas State has yet to force a turnover this season. That could make life much easier for ASU in the passing game.
Texas State vs. Arizona State pick, best bet
If nothing else, this game has the potential for some serious fireworks. Arizona State has been terrific against the run, but their pass defense faltered against Mississippi State. That could force Jackson and Texas State to toss the ball downfield early and often. It’s worth mentioning that the Sun Devils eked out a 31-28 win when these two teams met last season. I’m not expecting another nail-biter, but I do think the Bobcats hang around in this one.
