A top-20 college football showdown is brewing in the Sunshine State. #18 South Florida has been an early season Cinderella story. The Bulls upset Florida with a gritty 18-16 win last week, sparking dreams of a postseason run. #5 Miami has reeled off two straight wins, including a nail-biter over Notre Dame in Week 1. Which of these two programs has the edge entering Saturday’s matchup? Below is my prediction and pick for College Football Week 3’s game between the South Florida Bulls and the Miami Hurricanes.
Miami enters this contest as 17.5-point favorites over South Florida, with the over/under set at 57.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
South Florida vs. Miami prediction, preview
We’ve seen the Hurricanes get off to hot starts before under head coach Mario Cristobal. However, this group feels different. Miami was active in the transfer portal, landing former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck. The senior, protected by a stout offensive line, could produce a dominant season. That level of success up front also translates to the team’s rushing game. Out of the backfield, Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown have combined for 256 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
On defense, future first-round pick Reuben Bain Jr. is a game-wrecker for Miami. Against Notre Dame, the edge rusher racked up six tackles, 0.5 sacks, and an interception. New defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman appears to have made an immediate impact for The U. Up front, Bain Jr. is joined by fellow standouts Akheem Mesidor and Ahmad Moten. Together, the trio make up one of the nation’s most dangerous defensive lines.
That’s quite the amount of star power for any team to deal with, let alone a non-Power Four program. Still, South Florida comes into this contest riding high following their upset of the Gators. USF is an experienced team, rostering 33 seniors. That includes quarterback Byrum Brown, a true dual-threat. Through the air, he’s thrown for 473 yards and a touchdown. On the ground, he’s gained 109 yards and two scores. For the Hurricanes, facing the 20-year-old will offer a unique challenge for their new-look defense. In addition, wide receiver Keshaun Singleton (168 yards, 2 TD) could pose a problem for Miami’s secondary.
Ultimately, the Bulls will only have a shot if they can limit the damage on offense. After taking down one elite QB in Florida’s DJ Lagway, they’ll hope to do the same against Beck. That won’t be easy; the 23-year-old is one of college football’s preeminent gunslingers. Going back to his time in Athens, Beck has averaged 8.6 yards per attempt since 2023. USF has held opponents to just 5.9 yards per pass attempt, the 41st-best mark in college football.
South Florida vs. Miami pick, best bet
As feel good as this South Florida team has been, backing them on the moneyline is a bridge too far. Still, I have faith that head coach Alex Golesh can keep his squad in this one. Although the Canes won 50-14 in this matchup last season, it was an eight-point game at halftime. A more complete performance from the Bulls should make for an intense, physical battle on Saturday afternoon.
