Major League Baseball has all 30 teams in action on a busy Saturday of hardball. With just over two weeks left in the season, playoff races are getting tight and excitement is ramping up. If you’re looking to enjoy this Saturday’s slate with some juicy home run props, check out my top options on the board for Saturday. After looking at the matchups, game environments, odds and current form of the players available, my favorite home run props for Saturday come from Daulton Varsho, Lenyn Sosa and Jackson Merrill.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and aim for the fences with these home run props—all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the top home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators that can point us in the right direction, home run props are always volatile plays.
As a result, home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props go green on a given night. It also helps to get 34% extra juice from Big Papi!
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props on Saturday.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Daulton Varsho to record 1+ home runs (+330)
Varsho and the Blue Jays host the Orioles at 3:07 p.m. ET this Saturday as they continue to dominate the AL East. The Jays have won three of their last four and six of their last nine after thumping the O’s 6-1 in Friday’s series opener.
Varsho didn’t start that game against lefty Trevor Rogers but came in and smashed a two-RBI double in his only plate appearance. Varsho has been sharing playing time in September, but he has been productive when called upon, going 10-for-35 (.286) in his 39 plate appearances this month with two doubles, a triple and three home runs. He has a 14.8% barrel rate in those 10 games and a 17.0% barrel rate on the season.
Varsho has been limited to 58 games this season but has hit 18 homers with a .347 ISO and .358 wOBA. He homered in three straight games earlier in September and still brings lots of power potential.
Varsho and the Blue Jays’ lefties are in a good matchup against the Orioles and Tomoyuki Sugano. Sugano has a 4.51 ERA and 5.13 FIP in his 27 starts this season, and he has given up 27 homers, including six homers in his last three starts. Lefties like Varsho have hit 18 of those 27 homers and have a .357 wOBA against Sugano this season.
Since Varsho has been a good source of left-handed power, he should be in a good spot to deliver on these home run props.
Lenyn Sosa to record 1+ home runs (+740)
The longest odds in my home run props on Saturday come from White Sox infielder Lenyn Sosa. In fact, I don’t think I’ve ever included odds this long, but I love the value that Sosa brings at this number.
Sosa has 20 homers in his 128 games this season, and five of those have come off left-handed pitchers like Parker Messick, who he’ll face on Saturday. Sosa has hit more of his homers on the road than at home and has a .319 wOBA against lefties and a .336 wOBA on the road against lefties.
Sosa has regularly been hitting in the heart of the order for the White Sox and has three homers over his last 10 games. During that span, he has a 44.8% hard-hit rate and 13.8% barrel rate, which are both significant improvements on his season-long averages.
Sosa and the White Sox will face the 24-year-old Messick in just his fifth MLB start. He allowed a home run in his last outing and gave up nine homers in 20 Triple-A outings.
On Friday to start the series, Sosa went 0-for-4, but he has three homers off the Guardians in his 11 games against them this season. He is definitely a long shot in today’s home run props, but his odds definitely shouldn’t be this juicy given his recent production and how much power potential he has shown all season.
Jackson Merrill to record 1+ home runs (+461)
I highlighted Merrill in my top MLB DFS plays of the day and I love his home run props at +461 on Saturday as well.
Merrill crushed 24 dingers as a rookie last year, but he has only hit 11 homers in his 102 games this year while battling multiple injuries that have cost him time on the injured list.
He has been heating up lately, though, with eight hits in his last seven games, including two doubles, two triples and two homers.
Merrill has hit seven of his 11 homers at home, and nine of his 11 homers against righties. He’ll face a righty at home in Bradley Blalock, who has given up seven homers, a .357 batting average and a .431 wOBA to lefties this year.
While his odds aren’t as juicy as Sosa’s, they still are a very nice +461 since his power hasn’t been quite as obvious this year. The 22-year-old is still one of the top young hitters in the game, though, and this looks like a great spot to play his home run props and use him as a DFS play as well.
