A Saturday night in Death Valley sets the stage for an SEC grudge match under the lights. LSU is out to avenge last year’s loss to Florida, and Tiger Stadium is primed to erupt. Florida off a gross USF upset in the Swamp. LSU chugging along.
Below are my top college football player props to consider at DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 3 matchup between the LSU Tigers and the Florida Gators.
LSU vs. Florida best prop bets
Aaron Anderson 70+ receiving yards (-110)
I’m locking in LSU’s top wideout Aaron Anderson over 70+ receiving yards (-110) as the Bayou Bengals lean on their aerial attack. Anderson has been Garrett Nussmeier’s security blanket and explosive outlet, hauling in 14 of 18 targets through two games. He torched Clemson’s NFL-caliber secondary for 99 yards in Week 1 and followed with 73 yards in Week 2, consistently clearing this prop.
Why it’s a smash spot: LSU’s run game has sputtered, ranked 125th in rushing success rate, so Nussmeier will air it out against a Gators defense that allowed 263 passing yards to USF’s quarterback last week. Florida’s front seven is stout versus the run, holding foes to 2.8 yards per rush, but their secondary can be pierced by quick hitters. Anderson is exactly the weapon to exploit that. The shifty 5’8” sophomore lines up all over the formation, creating mismatches in space. He’s snagged 26% of LSU’s completions so far and is Nussmeier’s first read in high-leverage moments. With LSU using short passes and screens to replace inefficient handoffs, Anderson’s volume is locked in.
Advanced edge: Anderson’s combination of elite quickness and route savvy has led to seven games above this yardage last season, including 72 and a score against Florida. In a must-win SEC opener, I expect Nussmeier to feed his go-to target relentlessly. Anderson will shred the Gators for chunk gains, easily clearing 70+ yards as LSU exploits the soft spots in Florida’s coverage. I’m confidently riding this over into Baton Rouge’s electric night.
Jadan Baugh u75.5 rushing yards (-120)
Florida’s identity is pounding the rock behind workhorse Jadan Baugh, but I’m hammering Baugh under 75.5 rushing yards (-115) as LSU’s defense draws a line in the dirt. The sophomore back has impressed early with 197 yards through two games at 7.3 yards per carry and logged 18 carries for 93 yards in last week’s loss. He’s the clear bell cow, with no other Gator back topping six carries vs. USF. Yet this matchup is a brick wall. LSU’s run defense is elite – surrendering a mere 89 rushing yards on 48 carries over its first two games. That’s an absurd 1.9 yards per carry allowed, backed up by a top-15 national ranking in rush defense at 2.6 per attempt.
Why the under hits: A year ago, Florida gashed LSU for big runs, including a 55-yard Baugh touchdown burst, but this Tigers front is transformed. Coordinator Blake Baker has his unit playing disciplined, hat-on-hat football. LSU stuffs over 78% of rushing plays and allows only 5.2 yards on the rare successful carry. Baugh’s downhill style runs into a purple-and-gold buzzsaw in the trenches. Florida’s young quarterback DJ Lagway will be forced into obvious passing downs as LSU neutralizes the Gators’ ground game early. Advanced metrics underscore the challenge – Florida’s strong 55.2% rushing success rate faces an LSU defense giving up just 0.77 points per drive. The Tigers are allowing virtually nothing on the ground, having bottled up two opponents’ run games completely.
Bottom line: In deafening Tiger Stadium, LSU’s front seven will dominate the line of scrimmage. Baugh’s efficient output against lesser foes won’t translate here. I expect relentless penetration and gang-tackling to hold him well below 75 yards. No hedging – LSU slams the door on Baugh’s rushing lanes, making this under one of the sharpest plays on the board.
