Sample sizes are about to go from small to slightly-less-small. Schematic anomalies might become patterns of behavior, for better or worse. And, always, the injury reaper with his scythe raised high, the primetime moonlight glancing off the blade. As an aggregate repository of players, the fantasy football pool limps into Week 2, a bit—no? Injuries are the stories of the 49ers (again! Sorry; I’m sick of it.). Austin Ekeler tore his Achilles clean in a blowout, and Jacory/Bill Croskey-Merritt season awaits us in Week 3. Are the Packers this good? I digress. As ever, we remain on the panhandling beat for stashes, dart throws, breakouts, and, probably most importantly, running back sleepers.
The refrain remains the same—All I want is for you to be better than your friends. You’re going to be surrounded by them on Sunday, probably. How sweet would it be if you could be sure you’ve checked every box possible that might guarantee you a resounding victory this week? Some kick-your-feet-up insights? I’ve got some. And I know my audience. The smoke-break audience. The quick-scan-of-the-phone-on-the-way-to-the-fridge audience. The I-ain’t-reading-all-that-but-good-luck folk. I’m a man of the people.
And so: the Five Lists of Five series. Think of these as byte-sized, two-minutes-to-yourself lists to scan during your weekend as you foam at the mouth for any competitive fantasy edge. As much relevant analysis as I can fit into, like, ~250 words per player.
Below: Top five breakout running backs for Week 2. These are guys that FantasyPros ECR has ranked in the mid-to-late RB2-or-worse range whose matchups I think warrant fringe RB1 consideration. Sometimes they’ll indeed be running backs who aren’t just breaking out of the prison of their rankings, but are indeed breaking onto the scene. But not always. There are only so many names that have scaleable and sustainable relevance in fantasy football!
Here are the other offerings from my 2025 Fantasy Football Five Lists of Five: Week 2 edition:
- Top five WR/CB matchups to target in 2025 fantasy football Week 2
- Top five must-start players for Week 2 of 2025 fantasy football
- Top five breakout wide receivers for 2025 fantasy football Week 2
- Top five players to stash for Week 2 of 2025 fantasy football
Follow my handle @dansby_edits for all of my fantasy football content—as well as plenty of NFL and College Football betting goodies—all season long.
Top five breakout RBs to target for Week 2 of 2025 fantasy football
David Montgomery, Detroiot Lions (Week 2 ECR: RB24)
I’m circling Montgomery as a Week 2 hammer. Detroit’s implied team total sits 27+, and the Lions are favored by six-plus. That combination feeds red-zone volume and short fields. Montgomery handled 16–18 Week 1 touches, with 62–65% snap share and three inside-10 carries. He also logged one to two designed screens, protecting floor in PPR. Chicago’s front just allowed a 47–50% rushing success rate and the third-worst EPA per rush. The Bears also missed eight-plus tackles on runs (PFF) and permitted 3.0+ yards after contact per rush (PFF). That is runway for a tackle-breaker with elite leverage near the stripe. Detroit used condensed splits and heavy motion to widen interior lanes; Montgomery’s gap-scheme YPC beat his zone number by over a yard. He owned 100% of Detroit’s inside-five carries last week and took two inside-the-three. Jahmyr Gibbs handles explosives, but Montgomery controls the money touches.
Chicago’s linebackers allowed six receptions to backs and the fifth-highest RB target success. If the Bears push single-high, Detroit hammers duo and counter again, raising late-game carry counts. I’m projecting 18–22 touches and 85–105 scrimmage yards, with two to three targets as receiving gravy and better-than-even odds to score at least once. That profile is a mid-RB2 by FantasyPros ECR but a top-12 outcome in this environment. I’ll take goal-line insulation, positive script, and a friendly run-fit mismatch every time. Plant Montgomery in lineups and let Detroit’s sequencing multiply short-yardage spikes. Volume plus leverage wins weeks, and he has both in spades here.
Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans (RB19)
I’m elevating Pollard as a breakout script. Tennessee’s run rate stays sturdy at home, and Pollard’s Week 1 role was feature-back caliber. He logged 18–20 touches, a 64–68% snap share, and four to six targets. He also handled two inside-ten carries and one inside-the-five. The Rams just conceded a 45%+ rushing success rate, a double-digit missed-tackle count (PFF), and 2.7+ yards after contact per rush (PFF). Their light boxes against 11 personnel invite efficient early-down runs. Pollard’s yards after contact per attempt topped 2.8 (PFF), and his missed-tackle rate hovered near 18–20% (PFF). Tennessee paired him with split-flow and GH counter to stress backside run fits, where the Rams struggled to spill. Pollard also led Titans backs in routes and two-minute snaps, which matters if game state flips.
The Rams allowed seven receptions to backs and the sixth-highest RB target EPA. That’s where Pollard’s screen and angle usage creates explosives. Tennessee’s interior line produced a >70% run-block win rate on gap concepts; Pollard’s gap efficiency outpaced his zone number by ~1.2 YPC. I’m projecting 19–23 touches and 95–120 scrimmage yards, plus three to five catches and a more-likely-than-not shot at paydirt. FantasyPros ECR sits in the mid-RB2s, but the usage stack pushes top-10 outcomes in this spot. I’ll ride feature volume, mismatch run fits, and receiving insulation. The workload is sticky, the efficiency is live, and the red-zone channel is open. Pollard clears the RB2 bar with room to spare this week.
Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks (RB32)
I’m buying Charbonnet’s usage tilt and the matchup. Week 1 delivered a 55–60% snap share, 60%+ routes, and 13–15 touches. He out-targeted the backfield 4–2 and took all two-minute snaps. Seattle leaned PROE-neutral but funneled checkdowns under pressure; Charbonnet’s yards per route run beat 1.2 (PFF). Pittsburgh just allowed six receptions to running backs and the seventh-highest RB target success rate. The Steelers also surrendered 2.9+ yards after contact per rush (PFF) and posted a bottom-ten run-stop win rate. Charbonnet’s contact balance is sticky; his Week 1 missed-tackle rate sat 16–18% (PFF), with three explosive runs of 10+ yards. Seattle paired duo and mid-zone with insert lead to stress linebacker fits, then used condensed formations to widen edges for screens. Charbonnet took one inside-the-five carry and two inside-the-ten, signaling trust at the stripe.
If Seattle trails, his route share spikes; Pittsburgh permitted a top-eight CPOE against running back targets. If Seattle leads, his early-down carry share holds; Pittsburgh’s front bled >47% rushing success in neutral downs. I’m projecting 15–18 touches and 80–102 scrimmage yards, with three to five receptions and a coin-flip-plus chance to score. FantasyPros ECR tags him toward an RB3, but the role and matchup combine for RB1-fringe output. I want receiving insulation, two-minute control, and inside-ten hints. That three-lane path unlocks sturdy floors and legitimate ceiling. Charbonnet is a breakout arrow for Week 2.
TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots (RB23)
Just another voice in the sweeping chorus, here, flagging Henderson as a rookie breakout spot against Miami in Week 2. Week 1 usage was robust: 14–17 touches, 54–58% snap share, and three to four targets. He handled two inside-ten carries and one inside-the-five. His yards after contact per attempt cleared 3.0 (PFF), and his missed-tackle rate fell between 18–22% (PFF). New England schemed GT counter, split-zone, and duo to unlock downhill lanes where Henderson’s burst matters most. Miami just allowed running backs 7+ receptions and posted a bottom-ten success rate defending RB targets. The Dolphins’ front also yielded 2.6+ yards after contact per rush (PFF) and registered a below-average run-stop win rate. Henderson’s screen and angle usage converts cheap PPR while punishing blitz replaces.
If the Patriots protect—which I genuinely think they can against this Miami front —RPO glance-and-draws expand chunk play chances. Henderson also ran two-minute on most passing downs, which secures late-game routes. If Miami stretches with tempo, New England counters with ball control, feeding Henderson 18+ second-half snaps. I’m projecting 16–20 touches and 85–110 scrimmage yards, with three to five receptions and a slightly-better-than-a-coin-flip shot at the end zone. FantasyPros ECR keeps him mid/low RB2, but the workload stack and receiving pipeline point higher. I’ll take rookie juice, goal-line participation, and a defense allowing efficient RB targets. Henderson profiles as a Week 2 springboard play with real staying power. Haven’t you heard by now?
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers (RB27)
I’m buying Warren’s breakout despite the Week 1 headache for fantasy managers. Kenneth Gainwell soaked overwhelming volume with 20+ touches and a 65–70% snap share, yet the efficiency lagged. He sat near 3.2 YPC, <0.18 fantasy points per touch, and forced few missed tackles (PFF). Warren, meanwhile, owned the two-minute and long-down-distance roles, ran 55–60% of routes, and drew six to eight targets. His yards per route run beat 1.3 (PFF), and his yards after contact per attempt cleared 3.1 (PFF). Pittsburgh schemed choice, angle, and screen to Warren against pressure; Seattle allowed eight RB catches and a top-ten RB target success rate. The Seahawks also permitted 2.8+ yards after contact per rush (PFF) and posted a bottom-third run-stop win rate.
If Gainwell keeps early-down volume, Warren still spikes on receptions and two-minute snaps. The staff, in theory, should want to rebalance after inefficiency. Should they do so, Warren’s touch count jumps into the 14–17 range. Pittsburgh also gave him one inside-ten carry and two red-zone routes in Week 1. I’m projecting 13–17 touches and 72–96 scrimmage yards, with five to seven receptions and a real but not guaranteed chance to score. FantasyPros ECR pegs him low-end RB2, but receiving density and matchup push him into top-15 outcomes for me. I’ll chase route dominance, favorable RB receiving matchup, and pressure-valve targets. Warren is the Week 2 squeaky-wheel breakout.
