I don’t want to say that this game has no meaning, it just has less meaning than it might’ve had last week. That’s when the Rays had briefly fought their way back into the AL Wild Card picture. However, the club has since dropped five of its last six contests and now sits 6.5 games back of the Mariners. Alas.
On the other side, the Cubs will be playing in the postseason come October, yet the team’s fate has pretty much been decided. Barring something weird, Chicago will be the NL’s No. 1 Wild Card and it’ll likely host a three-game series in Wrigley against the Padres. Sounds like fun!
With all that context in mind, let’s preview this matinee interleague matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rays vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Speaking of the eventual Cubs-Padres playoff series, Matthew Boyd is surely going to get a start in one of those games. The 34-year-old has had some underwhelming results in recent weeks, yet for the season as a whole, Boyd is in possession of a 2.92 ERA and a 3.44 FIP across 28 appearances and 166.1 innings of work. That’s the most Boyd has pitched in a single campaign, by far, since all the way back in 2019. The left-hander has also tended to be at his best when he’s toed the rubber at Wrigley Field, sporting a 2.16 ERA within the split. Heck, opponents are slashing a putrid .212/.247/.339 off Boyd in his home starts. Guess he likes sleeping in his own bed.
Handedness is another split to keep in mind this afternoon. The Rays have utilized platoons better than almost any other organization over the past two decades, yet the squad just can’t seem to hit LHPs in 2025. To wit, Tampa Bay owns a .288 wOBA and an 81 wRC+ against southpaws this season. For the sake of comparison, the Rays sport a .323 wOBA and a 105 wRC+ versus RHPs. They’re almost a completely different team when an opposing starter throws the baseball like Ned Flanders. Go figure.
Alright. Time for one more split. Because Tampa has been playing its games at George M. Steinbrenner Field, the team’s entire pitching staff has tended to have some extreme home/road splits. Shane Baz isn’t the exception to that rule. Not even close. Baz has pitched to a gnarly 6.28 ERA at the Yankees’ minor league stadium, giving up 2.09 home runs per nine. On the road? Baz possesses a far more palatable 3.59 ERA. Stuff has never been a question for Baz, who is averaging 96.9 mph with his fastball so far this season. In 2025, it’s simply been a matter of location — both for his pitches and his team.
Rays vs. Cubs pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-121)
It all lines up. Boyd is better at Wrigley. Baz is better away from Steinbrenner Field. The wind is blowing in. Just take the under and thank me later.
