The MLB Wild Card race gets more interesting by the day, especially now that the San Francisco Giants (74-72) sit just 1.5 games back of the final postseason spot. Tonight, they open a three-game series against the NL West rival Los Angeles Dodgers (82-64). While San Francisco likely won’t challenge for the division lead barring an improbable collapse for the Dodgers, the Giants can certainly throw a wrench in the race for the top of the division since the San Diego Padres aren’t far behind in second place.
Tonight’s NL West battle should be a fun one as San Francisco’s hot offense duels one of the league leaders. Here’s a Giants vs. Dodgers prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s nightcap.
Giants vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
Since bouncing back from a four-game losing streak on August 23, the Giants are playing like one of the best teams in baseball with a 13-4 record. Over that 17-game span, this offense has emerged as a true force with an MLB-leading 118 runs for an average of 6.94 per contest. With Rafael Devers leading the charge, they’re hitting an astounding .297 as a team with an .870 OPS. The Giants have mashed 33 homers in that span, the second most of any team, but haven’t become too swing-happy and have the fifth-lowest K% at 19.3%. It truly feels like they’re doing everything right at the plate right now, and as long as the bats keep swinging like this, they’re a force to be reckoned with and real threat to steal a Wild Card spot.
In the opposite dugout, the Dodgers still hold the NL West lead but have gone just 5-5 over their last 10 contests. In nine games this September, Los Angeles has scored just 38 runs for an average of only 4.22 per outing. The team is still hitting a respectable .253 with a .751 OPS, and they’ve hit 13 homers across those games. However, they’re posting just a .281 BABIP which ranks 20th while also struggling to send runners home and score. The bullpen has also seen a 4.17 ERA while failing to protect the lead on a couple of occasions lately after choking away multiple games in the bottom of the ninth last week against the Baltimore Orioles.
Tonight’s matchup on the mound sees a duel between the Giants’ Justin Verlander (4.09 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 120 SO in 127.2 IP) and the Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.72 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 177 SO in 155.1 IP). The latter enters this contest on the heels of back-to-back outings of 10 strikeouts, and he pitched 8.2 scoreless innings in his last appearance, narrowly losing a no-hitter on what could’ve been the final at-bat of the game. Interestingly, Verlander has pitched well over his last seven starts with a 3.05 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in that sample while striking out 43 batters in 38.1 innings.
Giants vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Dodgers enter as -158 road favorites on the Moneyline while the Giants are +129 home underdogs. The run total sits at an even eight for the matchup with the under favored at -116 odds.
This might just be one of the toughest games I’ve picked all season. On one hand, San Francisco’s offense feels almost unbeatable given their recent form and remain red-hot after posting 19 runs across their most recent series. They’re hitting much better than Los Angeles right now, which is saying something since L.A.’s offense doesn’t look bad by any means — they’re just slumping a little bit compared to their ceiling. However, the duel between Yamamoto and Verlander also leans significantly in the Dodgers’ favor, especially with the Japanese pitcher coming off two very strong outings.
However, I’m not sure even Yamamoto can limit this Giants lineup at the moment given their scorching performances in recent weeks. Even in the case that he does, San Francisco could easily get to this bullpen and the home team sees their own stable of relievers pitch to a 3.28 ERA and 1.20 WHIP this month, both marks which rank second-best of any team. If Verlander can just hang in there with a quality start tonight, I like the Giants to win on the Moneyline at plus odds, value you won’t get in many matchups for that pick.
Best bet: SF Giants ML (+129)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
