This is the second contest of a three-game series in Boston between the Red Sox and visiting New York Yankees.
Max Fried is scheduled to pitch for New York, while Brayan Bello is slated to start for Boston.
Yankees at Red Sox prediction, preview
Max Fried is averaging a career-high 95.7 mph on the fastball. Most of the numbers are similar to what he’s been producing over the last five or six years. The strikeout rate is 22.5%, the walk rate is 6.4%, and the HR/9 is just 0.66. His 3.02 ERA is backed by a 3.21 FIP. The average exit velocity is 87.4 mph, with a 7.1% barrel rate and a 37.7% hard-hit rate.
Eight of the 12 home runs he’s allowed have come off the bats of lefties, and nine of the 12 have come on the road. His K-BB% is 25% against lefties and 13.4% against righties, but the home run discrepancy results in a much higher FIP against lefties. Still, Fried has essentially been split-neutral.
In 29 starts, Fried has allowed more than three earned runs just six times. He’s gone at least six innings in 19 of those starts. This will be his third time facing Boston this season. In the first meeting, back in June in Boston, Fried went seven innings, walked two, and struck out nine while allowing two earned runs on six hits. At home, four starts ago, he went six innings, walked three, and struck out seven without allowing an earned run on four hits.
Against left-handed pitching, the Red Sox rank 15th in strikeout rate and 12th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks fifth in MLB.
Brayan Bello consistently carried an ERA above 4.00 and a strikeout rate around 20% over his first three MLB seasons. This year, the strikeout rate is down to 18%, but the ERA has plummeted to 3.12. There’s been some good fortune: a .269 BABIP and 77% strand rate contribute to a much higher 4.04 FIP. The walk rate remains high at 8%, but his HR/9 is only 0.83 — he’s allowed 14 home runs on the season. The average exit velocity is 88.6 mph, the barrel rate is 6.7%, and the hard-hit rate is 38.7%.
His K-BB% is 6.9% higher against righties. Most of his numbers are consistent home and away, with a slight uptick in home runs allowed on the road.
In 25 starts, Bello has allowed more than three earned runs only twice. He’s gone at least six innings 16 times. This will also be his third time facing New York this season. In the first meeting, back in June at home, Bello went seven innings, walked three, and struck out eight without allowing an earned run on three hits. Four starts ago in New York, he again went seven innings, walked one, and struck out five — again, no earned runs allowed on three hits. My handy dandy abacus tells me he has not allowed an earned run to the Yankees this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Yankees have the sixth-highest strikeout rate, the best ISO, and rank first in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, New York ranks 19th in FIP, while Boston ranks ninth.
Yankees at Red Sox pick, best bet
I’m not expecting Bello to shut out the Yankees again, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he does. That said, even if he gives up a few runs, I don’t think it’ll be more than that — just a few. Fried has been great all season, and I don’t think he gives up much either. The Yankees’ bullpen, though, is an issue.
