The Red Sox and Yankees are meeting for the final time during the regular season this weekend at Fenway Park. The Yankees are just 0.5 games ahead of the Red Sox in the AL East standings, and the two teams are in the top two Wild Card spots coming into the weekend. On Friday night, this rivalry is in the Apple TV+ spotlight matchup, which is set to start at 7:10 p.m. ET
The Red Sox have won eight of the 10 matchups between these teams this year, and took three of four games at Yankee Stadium a few weeks ago. The Red Sox come home 81-66 after going 3-3 on their trip to Phoenix and Sacramento, and they have been very strong at home, going 44-28 at Fenway this season. While Boston had an off day Thursday, the Yankees avoided being swept at home by the Tigers by winning 9-3 to finish their six-game homestand 3-3 and at 81-65 on the season.
The Yankees are slight road favorites at -123 on the Moneyline, with the run total for the game at 8.5. Let’s preview this Friday night matchup with the help of some odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees at Red Sox prediction, preview
The Red Sox will start the series with Lucas Giolito on the mound, while the Yankees give the ball to last year’s AL Rookie of the Year, Luis Gil.
Giolito has been up and down throughout the season but has been very solid lately, allowing one or zero runs in five of his last eight starts with a 2.40 ERA and 3.92 FIP. One of the starts where he was knocked around a little, though, came in New York, where the Yankees reached him for three runs on five hits in 4 2/3 innings. Giolito got a no-decision for that start but took the loss in his last turn through the rotation, dropping to 10-3 on the year.
Gil has been limited to only seven starts this season after spending the first few months of the season on the sidelines with a lat strain. He is 3-1 in his seven starts with a 3.31 ERA, 4.13 FIP, and just 7.6 K/9 after producing 10.2 K/9 last season. Gil has also struggled with his control, with at least four walks in three of his last four outings, including one against the Red Sox. He went five innings in that game and gave up just one earned run but walked five while only striking out three.
Neither starter has been pitching late in games lately, and with expanded rosters, pitching changes could come early and often in this matchup. Both bullpens are fresh, too, since the Yankees only needed Ryan Yarbrough in relief on Thursday and the Red Sox were off.
From the offensive side, the Red Sox are a more balanced attack with strong production across the board, but the Yankees have more superstars and more power overall. The Yankees lead the majors in home runs over the last month, and they have the third-most runs during that span, even though they’re hitting under .250 as a team.
Aaron Judge has had his own inconsistencies this season, but he comes into this series off a huge game Thursday, when he went 3-for-4 with a pair of homers. He’s hitting .343 with a double, four home runs, two stolen bases and a .492 wOBA over his last 10 games.
Judge is 0-for-6 in his career against Giolito, though, with two walks and two strikeouts. The Yankee with the most success against Giolito is Amed Rosario, who is 7-for-17 with a triple in their past meetings.
The Red Sox haven’t had much success against Gil, with the main exceptions being Jaren Duran (3-for-10) and Alex Bregman (2-for-5 with a double). The rest of the roster is just 3-for-33 in limited history.
Duran also has been one of the Red Sox’s hottest hitters with 10 hits in his last 10 games, including five doubles and a home run. This season, Duran is hitting .290 with eight homers and a .379 wOBA at Fenway.
There should be plenty of drama and intensity in a playoff atmosphere at Fenway, and if either team can earn a sweep this weekend, it could basically wrap up the top Wild Card spot.
Yankees vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
Best Bet: Red Sox Moneyline (-101)
The Red Sox have been very good at home this season and very good against the Yankees. In his last six starts at Fenway, Giolito has only allowed a total of three earned runs, and he should be able to keep the game close enough for some late Fenway magic if the Sox don’t get to Gil early.
Strong Lean: Lucas Giolito over 15.5 outs recorded (-108)
Giolito has gone over this outs recorded line in five of his last eight starts overall. He has gone at least six innings in each of his last six starts at Fenway.
