The Rangers and Mets are on two different trajectories. Texas swept the Brewers and took two of three from the Astros, while the Mets are on a six-game losing streak.
Each team has 15 games remaining before the regular season concludes. They’re both in the Wild Card race, so this series is critical. Tonight’s matchup marks the first game of a three-game set between these teams.
New York is a -113 favorite, while Texas is -108 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 7.5 runs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Friday’s Mets vs. Rangers matchup.
Mets vs. Rangers prediction
While the Mariners took the AL West lead, the Rangers have been surging as well. They’re just two games behind division lead and third Wild Card spot. They catch the Mets on a rough stretch, as the New York club has lost six straight, including four straight against the Phillies.
Jacob deGrom will be on the mound for Texas, facing his former team for the first time this season. He’s had a resurgent season, pitching to a 2.78 ERA across 155.2 innings. He hasn’t pitched this many innings since 2019, and has combined to throw just 265.1 innings from 2020-2024.
Since the beginning of August, he’s only pitched at least six innings once in six starts. He’s pitched exactly five frames in four outings and 5.1 in another. He’s most likely to have a similar performance against the Mets, leaving the Rangers’ bullpen to finish the game.
Luckily for Texas, its bullpen ranks seventh in team ERA with 3.66. It’s a great unit that is capable of closing out the game after deGrom exits.
The Mets are going with a young arm in Jonah Tong. This will be his third start in the majors after debuting at the end of August. His first game was solid, allowing just one earned run against the Marlins, but he then allowed four earned on three home runs against the Reds.
While Tong has shown some promise already, it’s hard to have full confidence in the 22-year-old making his third start. On the other hand, deGrom has proven himself for over a decade in the majors.
Mets vs. Rangers pick, best bet
The Rangers are hot, while the Mets are cold. Texas has its ace on the mound, while New York is starting a rookie.
Let’s not overthink this. The Rangers should be favored, but they’re slight underdogs on the road. Take the moneyline and ride.