Major League Baseball gets the weekend started with 14 games under the lights this Friday night. With some great divisional series and important playoff races coming down to the wire, it should be a great night of hardball. To help celebrate the evening, DraftKings Sportsbook is offering Big Papi’s Big Fly Friday HR Boost, which gives bettors a 34% boost for any home run bet. Be sure to opt in and get that boost on the board for Friday’s home run props! After looking at the matchups, game environments, odds and current form of the players available, my favorite home run props for Friday come from Harrison Bader, Byron Buxton and Austin Hays.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and aim for the fences with these home run props—all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the top home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators that can point us in the right direction, home run props are always volatile plays.
As a result, home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props go green on a given night. It also helps to get 34% extra juice from Big Papi!
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props on Friday.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Harrison Bader to record 1+ home runs (+430)
Bader and the Phillies completed a four-game sweep of the Mets on Thursday and will welcome in the Royals to continue the homestand. Bader has quickly become a fan favorite in Philly since arriving at the trade deadline and has hit leadoff in the last three games against the Mets. He could stay in that spot, or drop back to lower in the lineup, but I like his home run props either way against Michael Lorenzen.
Bader has 16 homers on the season, and four of those have come in his 35 games with the Phillies. He has two homers in his last seven games, while going 12-for-27 (.444). During that short span, he has a 56.3% hard hit rate and an average exit velocity of 92.6 miles per hour, which is a huge improvement over his season averages of 43.6% and 87.6 miles per hour, respectively.
His last home run was Tuesday when he took lefty Sean Manaea deep.
Bader is 2-for-8 with two walks against Lorenzen but hasn’t gone yard against him in their past meetings. Still, I like his home run props against Lornezen since the Royals righty has a 5.22 road ERA and has given up 13 homers in his 13 road starts. Righties like Bader have done damage against Lorenzen this season, hitting 57% of his 21 homers allowed in just 48% of the plate appearances against him.
While I do like Kyle Schwarber (+212) and Bryce Harper (+299) at their home run odds, as well, the extra value and the splits make Bader my favorite option for Phillies home run props against Lorenzen. He’s definitely more of a walk on the wild side, but that’s what I’m looking for in my home run props this evening.
Byron Buxton to record 1+ home runs (+271)
The shortest odds in my home run props for this Friday come from Byron Buxton, who is putting the finishing touches on a big season that is largely going overlooked since he’s doing it in Minnesota.
Buxton has already set a new career-high with 31 homers on the season and is hitting .275 with a .293 ISO and a .377 wOBA. He has been scorching hot over the last few weeks and has six homers in his past 12 games. During that stretch, he has a jaw-dropping 62.9% hard hit rate and an average exit velocity of 96.2 miles per hour.
He has at least one hard hit ball in each of those 12 games and has been a one-man wrecking crew at the top of the Twins’ lineup. His home run on Wednesday came on a pitch that was up and well out of the zone, but Buxton still crushed this oppo taco.
On Friday night, Buxton takes on Brandon Pfaadt and the Diamondbacks at Target Field. Pfaadt was very good in his last start but has an ugly 7.13 road ERA and has served up 19 homers in his 14 road starts. Righties like Buxton have a .411 wOBA against Pfaadt on the road.
With the Buck truck firing on all cylinders, he’s a great way to start your home run props this Friday night.
Austin Hays to record 1+ home runs (+418)
For the last of our home run props, let’s head to the West Coast, where the Reds will continue their chase for the NL Wild Card spot with a three-game stop in Sacramento.
As Fall and cooler temps settle in across parts of the country, the warm weather and favorable home run environment of Sutter Health Park becomes even more valuable in home run props. The forecast for Friday night calls for temps in the 80s at gametime with a soft breeze blowing out.
Coming into their stop in Sacramento, the Reds have gotten good power production from Hays, who has 15 homers on the season, but five of those have come in his last 14 games.
Hays has hit nine of those 15 homers on the road and 13 of them against righties. He comes into this series with an eight-game hitting streak, and during that run, he has hit .313 with a 50% hard hit rate.
J.T. Ginn will start for the A’s, and he has given up 12 of his 16 homers this year at Sutter Health Park. While lefties have hit for a much better average against Ginn this season, righties have almost as many home runs against him, so I’m fine still using the righty Hays in this matchup due to his strong recent production.
On the other side of this matchup, Nick Kurtz (+240) and Shea Langeliers (+281) each have 30 homers and are solid home run props with shorter odds, but since Ginn has been hittable at home and Hays is rolling, he’s my top long shot play for this matchup in Sacramento.
