You know how it goes around here on a Friday. The whole league is in action this evening, which means literally thousands of possible MLB bets and props to choose from on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Allow me to narrow the field down to the two best ones. Let’s dive in.
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Red Sox ML (+104)
I don’t want to be too simplistic about such a massive matchup with playoff implications, but why are the Red Sox not favored in this spot? Boston is 44-28 at Fenway Park this season and they’ve only been the underdog 13 times in their prior home contests — they’re 9-4 in those games, by the way. More importantly, the Red Sox happen to be 8-2 against the Yankees in 2025. They have absolutely owned this divisional rivalry throughout the summer. It has been almost completely one-sided.
Another reason for confidence in Boston is the presence of Lucas Giolito. Things did not get off to the best start for the right-hander this season, but as he’s distanced himself from Tommy John and his rehab, Giolito has looked fantastic. In fact, since June 10, the 31-year-old is in possession of a 2.33 ERA over 96.2 innings of work. Does that come attached to an unsustainably low .239 opponent BABIP? Sure. Yet the fact remains that Giolito has been preventing runs as well as almost anyone in the AL for the past three months. That’s worth a modicum of respect.
It might also be worth noting that the Red Sox happen to be 12-4 in this 16-start stretch from Giolito. That could be the most important stat of them all.
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
Luis Castillo 8+ Strikeouts (+129)
Get in the car, loser. We’re blindly backing strikeout props against the Angels.
Luis Castillo hasn’t struck out eight opponents in a game since all the way back in early July. Heck, it’s a prop that he has only hit once in his 29 starts this season. I don’t care. It’s plus-money and he’s going up against a Los Angeles team that made Bryce Miller look like Nolan Ryan on Thursday night.
Over the past 30 days, the Angels lead MLB in strikeout rate at 28.6%. It’s not simply that they’re at the top of the list, though. It’s that there’s no other team in baseball within that span that’s even over 26%. Los Angeles is in a class all its own when it comes to going down on strikes. The league’s second-lowest contact rate (72.3%) and its third-highest swinging strike rate (12.9%) in that same stretch don’t help the cause much, either.
Miller, who entered yesterday’s contest with an underwhelming 17.4% strikeout rate, set down 11 Angels over 5.2 innings of work. That gives me more than enough confidence that his teammate can have a similar type of showing this evening. After all, Castillo has exactly 65 strikeouts in the 65.0 innings he’s thrown since the start of July. He’s no slouch on his own.
