After leaning strong to Arizona early in the week, I decided to jump on this one on Wednesday with the home Wildcats catching some points as short underdogs. Some sharp money came in on Kansas State when it was priced as the dog to flip the spread, but I disagree with the move.
I understand buying low on KSU — I’m doing the same thing with some other teams. In markets prior to the season, Kansas State was laying nearly a touchdown in this matchup, so it certainly isn’t the best value here on Arizona. But with three games in the books, I think there’s a chance we’ve seen enough to determine K-State just isn’t that good, at least for the time being.
Kansas State made plenty of mistakes against Iowa State in the loss in Ireland, came home and looked flat in a gross 38-35 win against North Dakota, and then lost at home to Army last week. At what point do we just admit this team isn’t very good? Sure, the talent is there, but it may take some time to come together for Chris Klieman’s team.
Now, in a season that’s already seen KSU play a lot of football and make a long trip overseas in a short amount of time, K-State has to pack its bags again on a short week to play a Friday night road game in Arizona. KSU is also dealing with some key injuries in the backfield and receiver, further complicating things when it comes to getting this offense on track. It all sets up for a nice spot for Arizona in a big home game.
Arizona has only faced Hawaii and Weber State, but the results have been positive, winning those games by a combined score of 88-9. Can’t really ask for the Wildcats to do more through two weeks with the schedule that was in front of them. I think Noah Fifita and company will be ready to go for a big nationally televised home game and put up some points on a struggling Kansas State squad. Arizona got smashed on the road in this matchup last season, and I’m looking for them to kick their fellow Wildcats while they’re down.
CFB Pick: Arizona +1.5 (-105) 1-unit
Check out my full CFB Week 3 betting card on DK Network right here.
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