At 74-73, Kansas City’s playoff hopes are hanging by a thread. It won’t get any easier for the Royals this weekend when they travel to Citizens Bank Park. Awaiting them are the Phillies, owners of the National League’s second-best record (87-60). Philadelphia has plenty to play for as well, hoping to chase down the Brewers for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Which of these two clubs will come out on top tonight? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s meeting between the Royals and the Phillies.
Philadelphia is favored (-137) over Kansas City, with the over/under set at nine runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Royals vs. Phillies prediction, preview
Remarkably, the Phillies are still in first place despite losing ace Zack Wheeler for the remainder of the season. Without its best pitcher, Philadelphia was forced to scour the free agent market for additional help. As a result, the team signed former All-Star Walker Buehler. Released last month by the Red Sox, it’s been a tumultuous 2025 campaign for the right-hander. Through 112.1 innings of work, he’s notched a 5.45 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 84 strikeouts. Still, his track record was strong enough for someone to take a flier, even in a limited role. During his lone start at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Buehler allowed one earned run over three innings while racking up five strikeouts.
Fortunately for the Phillies, this is an ideal matchup for any starter. The Royals possess one of baseball’s weakest offenses, averaging just 3.80 runs per game. Just four regulars in this lineup have produced a wRC+ above 100. Over Kansas City’s last 15 games, only the Rockies and Cardinals have scored fewer runs. A more hitter-friendly environment in Philadelphia could help KC, but it’s difficult to envision a lopsided score.
On the other side, it’ll be Michael Lorenzen toeing the slab. It’s been a tough season for the veteran, owner of a 4.65 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. In addition, he’s been far worse on the road (5.22 ERA) than at home (3.90 ERA). In comparison, the Phillies are averaging the league’s second-most runs per game at home (5.43). If anyone in Philadelphia’s lineup is poised for success tonight, it would be Kyle Schwarber. The slugger has a lifetime 1.144 OPS against the right-handed pitcher, including two home runs and five RBIs. This year, Lorenzen has coughed up a career-worst 1.5 homers per nine innings.
Royals vs. Phillies pick, best bet
Best Bet: Phillies -1.5 (+142)
It’s tempting to go with Kansas City in this spot, given Buehler’s brutal 2025 campaign. However, it’s not as if Lorenzen has been much better. Following a four-game sweep of the Mets, Philadelphia carries plenty of momentum going into this one. Expect the Phillies to hammer a few long balls en route to a comfortable Friday night victory.
