This is the opener of a three-game series in Miami between the Marlins and visiting Detroit Tigers.
Tarik Skubal is scheduled to pitch for Detroit while Sandy Alcantara is slated to start for Miami.
Tigers at Marlins prediction, preview
Tarik Skubal is one of the preeminent pitchers in MLB. Through 180 innings, he’s posting a 2.1 ERA and 2.29 FIP. He averages 97.6 mph on the fastball with a 16.5% swinging strike rate and 34.7% chase rate. That’s translated into a 32.6% strikeout rate. The walk rate is only 4.1% and he’s allowed only 15 home runs. The average exit velocity is only 86 mph and the hard hit rate is 32.5%.
14 of the 15 home runs have come off the bat of righties. That’s primarily due to the fact that managers are no dummies and rarely send out lefties against him. The K-BB% is impressively above 27% against both righties and lefties. He’s been site neutral.
In 28 starts, Skubal has allowed more than three earned runs four times. He’s gone at least six innings 21 times. This will be his first time facing Miami this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Marlins rank 25th in strikeout rate and 28th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 26th in MLB.
Sandy Alcantara is still averaging 97.7 mph on the fastball, but he’s struggled big time. The ERA is 5.67 and the swinging strike rate is 9%, the first below 10% in his career. The strand rate is only 59.7%, so he’s been a little unlucky and the 4.25 FIP confirms that. The strikeout rate is only 18.5% and the walk rate is 8%. The average exit velocity is 90.6 mph and the hard hit rate is 44.7%. Alcantara has allowed 28 home runs.
Alcantara has struggled with lefties, as the K-BB% is only 3.4% while the FIP is 5.13. He’s been better at home. The K-BB% is 3.1% higher and the FIP is 3.91 vs. 4.8 on the road.
In 28 starts, Alcantara has allowed more than three earned runs 15 times. He’s gone at least six innings 14 times. This will be his first time facing Detroit this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Tigers have the third-highest strikeout rate, the 11th-best ISO, and rank 16th in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Detroit ranks 25th in FIP, while Miami ranks 29th.
Tigers at Marlins pick, best bet
I have the utmost confidence in Skubal that I would mortgage the….Yeah, I’m not going there because anything can happen in baseball. That said, Skubal is awesome and I like him to stymie the Marlins’ offense. Alcantara has really struggled this season and the bullpen has been bad as well. I like the Tigers’ offense to tee off on Marlins pitching.
