This is the second contest of a three-game series in Toronto between the Blue Jays and visiting Baltimore Orioles.
Tomoyuki Sugano is scheduled to pitch for Baltimore while Max Scherzer is slated to start for Toronto.
Orioles at Blue Jays prediction, preview
Tomoyuki Sugano has a 4.51 ERA and 5.13 FIP through 143.2 innings. The strikeout rate is only 15.5% but the walk rate is also low at 5.6%. He’s given up 27 home runs and the barrel rate is 11.4%. The chase rate is 29.4%, as the slider has a 5.2 run value, but the swinging strike rate is only 7.8%. The fastball has a -6.6 run value while the curveball has been crushed with a -8.2 run value.
18 of the 27 home runs have come off the bat of lefties. 17 of the 27 home runs have been served up at home. The K-BB% is 8.8% against lefties while the HR/9 is 2.14. The numbers are close at home and on the road, except for the home run discrepancy.
In 27 starts, Sugano has allowed more than three earned runs five times. He’s gone at least six innings 11 times. He faced Toronto way back in April, going 4.2 innings, walking two without a strikeout while allowing three earned runs on eight hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Blue Jays rank 30th in strikeout rate and 13th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks third in MLB.
Max Scherzer is still going strong at 40 years old. The fastball is averaging 93.5 mph, the walk rate is 6.6% and the strikeout rate is 23.2%. The swinging strike rate is 10.3% but the chase rate is only 23.6%. The big weakness has been the home run, as he’s allowed 16 in 74.1 innings. The average exit velocity is only 87.8 mph while the hard-hit rate is 34.8%, but the barrel rate is 12.4%. The ERA is 4.36 while the FIP is 4.95. Scherzer has been fortunate with a .258 BABIP and 79.3% strand rate.
11 of the 16 home runs have come off the bat of lefties and at home. The K-BB% is 10.2% higher against righties and it’s 3.8% higher on the road.
In 14 starts, Scherzer has allowed more than three earned runs four times, with three of those coming in the most recent outings. He’s gone at least six innings seven times. He faced Baltimore way back in March for his first start of the season, going three innings, not issuing a walk and striking out one while allowing two earned runs on three hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Orioles have the fourth-highest strikeout rate, the ninth-best ISO, and rank 18th in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, Baltimore ranks 17th in FIP, while Toronto ranks 18th since August 1.
Orioles at Blue Jays pick, best bet
Both pitchers are susceptible to the long ball while the bullpens have been mediocre. That combination sets up a perfect opportunity to go over the run total.
