The end of the regular season is near, with the Astros fighting to retake the AL West lead and the Braves to finish with some dignity.
Atlanta is well out of the playoff race but technically isn’t eliminated from contention just yet. Still, it would take quite a push for the team to earn a Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Astros hold the third Wild Card spot in the American League at the moment.
Houston is a -102 underdog, while Atlanta is -119 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under nine runs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Friday’s Braves vs. Astros matchup.
Braves vs. Astros prediction
The Braves and Astros both have quality veteran starters, but that won’t be the matchup tonight. Both sides are sending two inexperienced arms to the mound.
Atlanta is starting Hurston Waldrep, a 23-year-old who’s pitched in nine games since debuting in 2024. His 2025 campaign (seven games, six starts) has been great, however. He has a 1.33 ERA through 40.2 innings, striking out 38 in the process.
Pitcher wins aren’t as meaningful in today’s game, but it’s still noteworthy that Waldrep’s 4-0 this year. He allowed two earned runs in his last start against the Mariners, but that was the only game he allowed more than one earned run this season.
Waldrep’s capable of pitching deep into games, having gone as long as seven frames. He generally caps his pitch count in the late 80s to early 90s, so if he can be efficient, he can go far.
Houston is starting Jayden Murray, who has made two appearances in his career. He debuted this season as a reliever, pitching 2.1 innings with one strikeout thus far. This will be his first career start and is likely going to be used as an opener.
The Astros will have Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez pitching the next two games of the series, so it’s the hope that they won’t need the bullpen as much in those games. The team’s bullpen ranks 10th in the majors with a 3.73 ERA. While Murray is technically a part of that crew, his 0.00 ERA isn’t as impactful since he’s thrown just 2.1 frames.
Braves vs. Astros pick, best bet
The Astros have been struggling lately, though they’ve also had a tough schedule. They lost two of three against the Yankees, Rangers and Blue Jays in three consecutive series. Now they travel to Atlanta for a three-game set against a weaker opponent.
The Braves lost three of four to the Phillies, two of three to the Cubs, Mariners and Cubs again in four straight series. Their playoff hopes are slim, while the Astros still have a real shot at the division crown.
Despite this, I’m siding with team 16 games under .500. The Braves have Waldrep on the mound, and while young arms are difficult to trust, he’s been great in a short span. It’s hard to ignore his excellence, and it’s more glaring when the Astros are using an opener who’s pitched just 2.1 MLB innings.