The Diamondbacks and Twins were two of the biggest sellers at the MLB Trade Deadline, and the two teams will meet this weekend in Minnesota. The series starts with a Friday night matchup at 8:10 p.m. ET as Pablo Lopez takes the mound for Minnesota against Arizona’s Brandon Pfaadt.
Since August 1, the Diamondbacks have actually gone 22-16, the fourth-best record in the majors, while the Twins have gone an MLB-worst 13-25. Minnesota is miles out of the Wild Card race, while the Diamondbacks are just one game under .500 and three games behind the Mets for the third and final Wild Card spot.
The pitching matchup seems to favor the Twins, though, so they are heavy favorites at home at -144, with the run total for the game at 8.5. Let’s preview this Friday night matchup with the help of some odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Diamondbacks at Twins prediction, preview
Lopez was on the injured list at the time of the trade deadline, or else his name would have almost certainly been involved in the team’s fire sale. He was sidelined from June 3 to September 5 due to a strain behind his shoulder, but he looked effective in his first game back against the Royals.
He allowed two runs in six innings with four strikeouts, but he took the loss to drop to 5-4 in his 12 starts on the season. Lopez threw 92 pitches in his return and should be basically back to a full workload.
He’ll be opposed by Pfaadt, who has been more reliable this year but has also struggled on the road. He’s 13-8 with a 5.18 ERA and 4.19 FIP in his 29 starts, but on the road, he has an ugly 7.13 ERA and 5.99 FIP. Pfaadt is coming off one of his best starts of the season, allowing one run on six hits and with seven strikeouts and no walks over six innings to beat the Red Sox, but he has given up at least four runs in four straight road starts, allowing 21 runs in those four appearances.
Pfaadt has allowed 57 runs in 70 2/3 innings on the road, with 19 home runs against him and a .388 wOBA. Righties have been especially effective against him, hitting nine homers with a .411 wOBA.
Those splits were part of the reason that I included the red-hot Byron Buxton in my top home run props for the day. Buxton has six homers in his last 12 games while hitting .333 with a 62.9% hard-hit rate.
Besides Buxton, the Twins have been getting good play from youngster Luke Keaschall. The 23-year-old righty is 14-for-42 (.333) with two doubles, four stolen bases, seven runs scored and six RBI. Keaschall is hitting .318 with 12 stolen bases and a .382 wOBA in his 39 games in the majors this season.
Another righty bat to consider backing is Royce Lewis, who went 0-for-8 in his last two games, but was on a nice roll prior to that. He has been able to stay healthy this season, and he is settling into a good groove.
On the Diamondbacks’ side, Ketel Marte (foot) is expected to play Friday as long as everything goes well for him before the game. He left in the seventh inning on Wednesday with a bruised foot, but X-rays were negative.
Geraldo Perdomo has been one of Arizona’s hottest hitters lately, producing 10 hits in his last 10 games with three homers, six runs, six RBI and a stolen base. The 25-year-old shortstop has had a breakthrough season, moving from the bottom of the order to the top. He’s hitting .284 on the year with a career-best 18 homers, 90 runs scored, 93 RBI and 25 stolen bases.
While neither of these teams is likely headed for the playoffs, there are still plenty of storylines to watch on both sides since the trades opened space for exciting young talent. Some of that will be on display Friday night in the Twin Cities.
Diamondbacks vs. Twins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Twins Team Total Runs over 4.5 (+105)
The Twins have gone over this total in two of their last four games overall and four of their last seven games at home. With Pfaadt’s road struggles, I love taking them to get five runs or more at plus money this Friday.
Strong Lean: Byron Buxton & Geraldo Perdomo – Combined Total Bases 5+ (+141)
Both leadoff hitters have been hot enough that getting this combined total base total at plus money is a juicy prop to attack this Friday. If you want a safer play, 4+ is available at -117. However, I like being aggressive with this prop since Buxton has 41 total bases in his last 10 games (4.1 per game), and Perdomo has 19 total bases in his last 10 games (1.9 per game). Combined, they’re averaging six total bases per game, so getting to 5+ at +141 is a strong combined player prop to target.
