With less than three weeks left in the regular season, there are a couple games on Thursday’s slate that are of massive importance and have huge playoff implications. This is not one of those games.
Instead, we get a battle of bottom dwellers in the NL East, as the Nationals and the Marlins finish up a four-game series this evening in Miami. MacKenzie Gore and Ryan Weathers are both back and starting after missing time on the IL. That’s at least something, right? …Right?!
Let’s preview this divisional matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nationals vs. Marlins prediction, preview
It will be interesting to see if MacKenzie Gore has any limitations on Thursday. The left-hander last took the mound on August 26 against the Yankees, throwing five innings and allowing three runs. He did not make a rehab outing. Gore was amazing in the first-half of 2025, and was a deserving All-Star selection. However, things have unraveled since the Midsummer Classic. In his past 37.0 innings of work, Gore has pitched to a 7.54 ERA with a 5.85 FIP. His first-half strikeout rate sat at 30.5%, yet that has fallen to just 20.3% in the campaign’s second-half. In all honesty, a quick 15-day stay on the injured list might have been as much about a mental reset as anything else.
Gore will look to get things right in a matchup with a Marlins squad that has struggled to consistently hit left-handed pitching all season long. To wit, Miami ranks 28th in ISO (.120), 27th in batting average (.228) and 27th in wRC+ (79) within the split. Despite that, the Marlins have actually fared decently in their two prior meetings with Gore in 2025, with the southpaw surrendering 16 hits and six earned runs over 12.0 combined innings.
Unlike Gore, Ryan Weathers has appeared in some tune-up games in recent weeks, the most recent of which came last Thursday in Triple-A, when the LHP worked 4.2 scoreless frames and faced 18 batters in total. Since the beginning of last season, Weathers has mustered a 3.56 ERA with an above-average 22.0% strikeout rate over 21 starts with the Marlins. The potential is clearly there to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm, if only Weathers could stay healthy. Specific to tonight’s matchup, the Nationals, much like Miami, have been underwhelming against lefties, sporting a .128 ISO and an 80 wRC+.
Nationals vs. Marlins pick, best bet
Best Bet: First 5 – Under 3.5 (+124)
Both of these teams have proven they can not hit left-handed pitching and there’s reason for optimism with both starters. Let’s keep the bullpens out of this bet, though.
Strong Lean: Nationals ML (-103)
In a tilt between two clubs that are so similar, simply give me the underdog on the moneyline.
