Headed into the Green Bay Packers’ Week 1 matchup with the Detroit Lions, a lot of uncertainty surrounded Jayden Reed. The Packers star receiver was reportedly dealing with a Jones fracture in his foot and received a questionable tag. But he suited up, hauling in three of his five targets for 45 yards and a score. Green Bay limited his workload substantially, as he appeared on only 37.5% of the team’s offensive snaps, but Jordan Love was unafraid to throw to him when he did play. Since the Packers opted for a relatively conservative game plan, Reed’s five targets were actually the most of any Green Bay receiver.
Despite the short turnaround prior to tonight’s Thursday Night Football clash against the Washington Commanders, which begins at 8:15 p.m. ET, Reed is not on the injury report and is expected to play. The only question is how much he’ll play. It’s doubtful that he’ll play close to his normal share, given that a Jones fracture is often caused by repeated stress on the outside of the foot and carries high re-injury risk if not surgically treated. Expecting something like the 12 routes he ran on Sunday is probably reasonable.
He should be somewhat effective in those snaps, though. Last season, the Commanders had one of the league’s worst secondaries, averaging the third-worst coverage grade on Pro Football Focus. Though they held opposing quarterbacks to the fifth-lowest completion percentage, they were torched when they did allow the receiver to make the catch, allowing the ninth-most yards per completion. If Love continues to use him as a deep threat — his 14.0-yard average depth of target ranked 12th among receivers with at least five targets in Week 1 — that efficiency could work in his favor, since he’s unlikely to rack up impressive volume.
Washington was league-average in coverage in Week 1, with safety Will Harris turning in a particularly strong performance. Reed could see a few snaps against Harris: on 10 of the 17 snaps in which he was in direct coverage, he lined up in the slot, and 14 of Reed’s 18 offensive snaps came in the slot as well. Still, if he lines up in the slot, he’s more likely to go against Mike Sainristil, who recorded just a 64.5 coverage grade last season and allowed a 96.7 passer rating on his 96 targets. Tre Amos also had a rough debut, receiving just a 57.8 coverage grade.
Given the weakness of the Commanders’ front seven, I’m also high on Josh Jacobs and the run game, and both Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks had solid games last week against Detroit. Still, Washington’s defense is bad enough and its offense potent enough that everyone on both teams can eat. I’ll give him a tentative start grade.
Start or Sit: Start Jayden Reed.
