DKNetwork Logo DKNetwork Logo
NFL Best Bets: Packers vs. Commanders Best Prop Bets on Thursday Night Football

NFL Best Bets: Packers vs. Commanders Best Prop Bets on Thursday Night Football

Updated:

By: Sean Barnard

The NFL season is underway, and Week 2 will kick off with a Thursday night matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Washington Commanders. Both teams are coming off a convincing Week 1 win, and this will be an interesting measuring stick matchup for each team. The Packers and Commanders have the second and third-best odds, respectively, to win the NFC on DraftKings Sportsbook, and they are looked at as the top threat to take down the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles in the conference. But there is plenty of time until that is decided, and all focus will be on Week 2 for the time being.

Looking at the odds, the Packers are favored by 3.5 points and hold -170 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Commanders hold +142 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 48.5.

There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 2 opener between these NFC heavyweights.

Packers vs. Commanders Best Prop Bets

Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-119)

The Green Bay Packers have made it clear they view Jordan Love as their franchise quarterback and have paid him as such. The production on the field has been a bit rockier than is sometimes acknowledged, and this is a big year for the 26-year-old. Love threw for 32 touchdowns, or 1.88 per game, in his debut season as the starter in 2023. He then took a slight step back last year to throw 25 touchdowns across 15 games, or 1.67 per game. He threw for two passing touchdowns in the opening game against the Lions, even while Green Bay had the game in check and were content leaning on a run-heavy offense to bleed out the clock with the lead.

He will face off with a Commanders defense that ranked below average in defensive pass DVOA and success rate last season. Washington blitzes often and leaves its secondary on an island, which can lead to some great results for the quarterback if he can get the throw off. One of the most notable strengths of Green Bay is its wide receiver depth, where any given pass catcher can step up as WR1 on any given week. In the three games that Matt LaFleur has faced Dan Quinn, his offense has put up 30, 31 and 48 points. Expect this matchup to have some points on the board and for Love to be at the epicenter of this. He reached this total in eight of the 15 games last year, so look for him to tally over 1.5 passing touchdowns for the second straight game of the 2025 season.

Jayden Daniels Over 9.5 Rushing Attempts (+111)

On the other side of this quarterback matchup, I am backing Jayden Daniels with his legs. The reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year picked up right where he left off last season, throwing for 233 yards and a touchdown while adding 68 yards with his legs. He led the Commanders with 11 rush attempts and also led the team in rushing yards last season.

Green Bay’s defense looked dominant in the opening game and is sure to bring the heat again this week. Micah Parsons joined an already strong defensive line unit that collectively sacked Jared Goff four times in the opener. Washington has had struggles with its offensive line while facing less intimidating units, and expect this to be a factor in the matchup. While Daniels is sure to have some designed runs anyway, count on him needing to escape the pocket and attempt to make something out of nothing throughout.

Daniels tallied over 9.5 carries in six games last year, along with two of the three playoff matchups. He also tallied at least seven rush attempts in 13 of the 17 games. The battle between the Commanders’ offensive line and the Packers’ pass rush will be one to monitor throughout. But I am backing Daniels’ legs to be the solution and for him to shake free at a regular rate. Getting +111 odds is solid value, and expect the Pro Bowl QB to reach double-digit rush attempts in the Thursday night thriller.

Austin Ekeler to Record 40+ Receiving Yards (+278)

The Washington backfield is still up for grabs with a few different players in the mix. Rookie Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt made his impact felt, leading the team with 82 rushing yards and a touchdown across his 10 carries. But 42 of those yards came on one rush, which distorts his impact to an extent. Daniels added 62 rushing yards of his own, while Jeremy McNichols tallied four carries and Deebo Samuel Sr. delivered a 19-yard rushing touchdown.

Austin Ekeler is also in the mix. In the first week, he tallied six carries for 26 yards and added three receptions for 31 yards. The expected high-scoring matchup plays to Ekeler’s strength, as does Green Bay’s tendency to bring pressure. Ekeler is an excellent receiving back who has averaged 30+ receiving yards per game over each of the past seven seasons. He has averaged as many as 62.1 receiving yards per game and tallied 600+ receiving yards in a season three times.

The standard receiving prop for Ekeler is set at 22.5 yards for this matchup. While I like this number as well, I think he is in store for a larger game than just this. Count on Washington to lean on the veteran in the screen game and with short passing routes as a counter to the pressure the Packers will provide. Ekeler tallied 40+ receiving yards in five of his 12 games played last year and will continue to serve as the primary pass-catching back. This is a game script that plays to his favor, and I am backing Ekeler to record 40+ receiving yards at +278 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Sean Barnard is a Philadelphia-based writer with experience in the sports media and the betting space since 2020. He has a particular focus on the NBA, but covers a wide range that includes the NFL, WNBA, college basketball, and the MLB. Sean started working for DraftKings Network in 2024. Prior to this you can read his work at ClutchPoints, Philly Sports Network, and Heavy Sports. He also is still active in the Philadelphia Sports Radio scene and is a writer for Crossing Broad.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.