Fresh off two blowout wins, the Detroit Tigers have a chance to complete a sweep over the New York Yankees in the Bronx on Thursday. Lefty Tyler Holton will be serving as an opener for Detroit, while standout rookie Cam Schlittler is set to take the bump for New York.
The Yankees are -172 moneyline favorites in the series finale, despite the back-to-back 10-run losses, with the run total set at 8.5. Here is a preview of the Thursday night showdown featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Tigers prediction, preview
Before this week, New York had lost just two games by double digits all season long. In both prior instances, they won the next day to avoid sweeps. That bodes well for the Yankees’ chances on Thursday, as does the starting pitching matchup.
Schlittler got beat up his last time out, allowing five hits, two walks, a hit batsman and four earned runs against the Toronto Blue Jays on September 5. He was stellar over the course of August, though, posting a 1.60 ERA, 0.980 WHIP, .186 batting average against and 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The 24-year-old averaged 5.1 innings per start across his first nine career big league outings. New York could certainly use a long outing like that, given the club used four relievers on Tuesday and five on Wednesday.
The Yankees actually got quality starts out of Will Warren and Carlos Rodon in the first two games of the series, only for their bullpen to give up a combined 19 runs in 6.0 total innings of work. So Schlittler returning to form will only get New York so far.
As for Holton, he owns a 6.14 ERA as a starter this season, compared to his 3.52 ERA as a reliever. He has also given up three home runs in his five starts. Aaron Judge may have grounded into a double play against Holton on Wednesday, but he could very well get his revenge early on Thursday. For all of Judge’s struggles at the plate recently—he is batting .241 since June 11 and .231 in September—he still has plenty of pop. The AL MVP favorite already went yard in game one of the series, and his seven bombs in the last 30 days are still good for a 36-homer pace over 162 games.
Each of Judge’s last two home runs, as well as five of his last nine, have come in the first inning. He has homered in 8.8% of his plate appearances against lefties – like Holton – this season, compared to a 6.8% home run rate versus righties.
The Tigers own the best record in the American League at 84-62, but only the 13th-best bullpen ERA and 16th-best bullpen WHIP in MLB. Troy Melton and Brennan Hannifee both pitched Wednesday—not to mention Holton. And although Detroit only needed one reliever on Tuesday, having an inning-eater like Chris Paddack post a nine-out save makes it unlikely for him to go again on two days’ rest. Former Yankee Tommy Kahnle has a negative WAR on the season, leaving late-inning options Will Vest and Brant Hurter as the only truly reliable options out of the bullpen.
Yes, New York has scored a total of 11 runs in the last five games. In the 11 contests before that, however, they scored 82. That’s good for an average of 7.5 per game.
Yankees vs. Tigers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Yankees vs. Tigers o8.5 (-106)
New York is favored for a reason, with recent history suggesting that a sweep can be avoided. At the same time, the lackluster production out of the Yankees’ relievers makes it hard to really rely on a win, even if Schlittler deals another gem and the offense comes back to life. Add that to a bullpen game for Detroit, and there is a high likelihood that Thursday turns into a slugfest.
Strong Lean: Aaron Judge 1+ HR (+244)
While Judge hasn’t hit a home run in five career at-bats against Holton, he is a .400 hitter in the head-to-head matchup. He just got a look at the southpaw on Wednesday, too, plus Judge at Yankee Stadium is always a threat.
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
